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Pattern January Discussion

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Arcc said:
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
a67d7284c9f5d754a9575a6ba0461ed4.jpg
746c419cb76a2ff39f60ea1c9a4caa64.jpg


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Pac ridge, east coast trough possible energy undercutting that ridge....what's not to love.  Seems it was about this frame prior to our last winter storm that the signs started showing up.  Looking great moving forward.  

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Depends. That may produce or be a massive teade. You are flooding NA with Pacific air and effectively locking the Arctic. That is super marginal.
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most of our events are marginal to begin with . I'll take my chances with that look. beats a cold dry NW flow

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Tarheel1 said:
Things about to get exciting, like that Clemson game the other day!? Hope the players on the field end up being like Clemson players and not that other team! :)
6z GFS = glory
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Are you saying Alabama's players weren't good?
 
Not good enough
 
You rang? Looks like things start get interesting again by the beginning of next week headed to the end of the month. I saw Greg Fishel from WRAL posted on Facebook yesterday about a possible noreaster. I think we'll have another shot at a winter storm here before the end of the month. Didn't get as much snow as advertised with the last storm, but it was still a solid storm with sleet and snow, enough to cause problems on the roads for a few days. Kind of frustrating to see all the models in pretty good agreement for at least 6 inches of snow here, though, and it end up being a little too warm. That's why I say the best they can show is a possibility when it comes to winter storms here. How much we actually get is just a guess.
 
Stormlover said:
Tarheel1 said:
Not good enough
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Ridiculous comment. If you ever got a winter storm as good as Bama's players, you'd never forget it. :rolleyes:
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Bama would have won if bo didn't go out with injury. Just sayin'.
 
Brick Tamland said:
You rang? Looks like things start get interesting again by the beginning of next week headed to the end of the month. I saw Greg Fishel from WRAL posted on Facebook yesterday about a possible noreaster. I think we'll have another shot at a winter storm here before the end of the month. Didn't get as much snow as advertised with the last storm, but it was still a solid storm with sleet and snow, enough to cause problems on the roads for a few days. Kind of frustrating to see all the models in pretty good agreement for at least 6 inches of snow here, though, and it end up being a little too warm. That's why I say the best they can show is a possibility when it comes to winter storms here. How much we actually get is just a guess.
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I agree Brick,  within the next week or two things should look interesting. Models do pretty good of showing a winter storm and placement, but how much is always the question and the temp. Lots of shuffling in the models with timing of the cold but still end of month looks good for the change.
 
Of course the GFS is the warmest one now when it never budged from being the coldest and showing get the most snow here with the last storm.
 
Atlanta is already +5 for January as of yesterday with a lot more warmth ahead. Maybe a week from now Atlanta will be close to +10 for the month ? Maybe warmest January on record a possibility ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Atlanta is already +5 for January as of yesterday with a lot more warmth ahead. Maybe a week from now Atlanta will be close to +10 for the month ? Maybe warmest January on record a possibility ?
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Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
 
Brick Tamland said:
You rang? Looks like things start get interesting again by the beginning of next week headed to the end of the month. I saw Greg Fishel from WRAL posted on Facebook yesterday about a possible noreaster. I think we'll have another shot at a winter storm here before the end of the month. Didn't get as much snow as advertised with the last storm, but it was still a solid storm with sleet and snow, enough to cause problems on the roads for a few days. Kind of frustrating to see all the models in pretty good agreement for at least 6 inches of snow here, though, and it end up being a little too warm. That's why I say the best they can show is a possibility when it comes to winter storms here. How much we actually get is just a guess.
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Brick sighting!.... There you are buddy, I thought you had jumped off a cliff or something.
 
olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Atlanta is already +5 for January as of yesterday with a lot more warmth ahead. Maybe a week from now Atlanta will be close to +10 for the month ? Maybe warmest January on record a possibility ?
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Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
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It's just a January Thaw or so says JB. LOL! I don't care what anyone says...this warm up is something else.


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It seems like we always break warm records but we rarely break records of cold temp readings.

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Here's a fun little chart of my temperatures of the last 14 days. You'll notice the last day I went below freezing was January 9th and no sign of below freezing temps for at least two weeks more. This has got to be one of the longest streaks of no below freezing temps when it's all said and done. Maybe someone on here can do some digging and find out what the longest previous streak was for the White House Tennessee area.

84377c4709bfd7e3b4bd1eebfd04a379.png



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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Any update on the announcements?

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We are getting the server transition going. The other stuff won't be far behind. We are waiting in most things until the server is upgraded

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Strong blocking on 12z Euro...systems curl up over the lakes and kinda fade away. If we get a Miller A there will definitely be strong amplification for the storm. The LP on 12z Euro has a low curling up over the lakes with a 976MB with the LP not really moving anywhere. Definitely a sign of strong blocking.

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olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Atlanta is already +5 for January as of yesterday with a lot more warmth ahead. Maybe a week from now Atlanta will be close to +10 for the month ? Maybe warmest January on record a possibility ?
Click to expand...


Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
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Just curious. Where did you live before you moved to TN ?
 
whatalife said:
olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Atlanta is already +5 for January as of yesterday with a lot more warmth ahead. Maybe a week from now Atlanta will be close to +10 for the month ? Maybe warmest January on record a possibility ?
Click to expand...


Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
Click to expand...


It's just a January Thaw or so says JB. LOL! I don't care what everyone says...this warm up is something else.


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A January thaw doesn't normally last 2-3 weeks does it with temps 10-20 degrees above normal ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
whatalife said:
olhausen said:
Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
Click to expand...
It's just a January Thaw or so says JB. LOL! I don't care what everyone says...this warm up is something else.
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Click to expand...
A January thaw doesn't normally last 2-3 weeks does it with temps 10-20 degrees above normal ?
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It's a thaw and its January, it can last until February 1st, if need be! Come on Carrollton
 
SoutheastRidge said:
olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Atlanta is already +5 for January as of yesterday with a lot more warmth ahead. Maybe a week from now Atlanta will be close to +10 for the month ? Maybe warmest January on record a possibility ?
Click to expand...


Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
Click to expand...

Just curious. Where did you live before you moved to TN ?
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I grew up in San Diego until I was 26 years old. I moved to Tennessee in July of 2006 so you'd think I would hate the cold but I'm just the opposite. While the weather in San Diego is great it is also very boring when you get 70 and sunny day after day. I love the four seasons out here but I really love when it's cold and snowy. I'm outside much more often in the winter then I am during the summer.


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Tarheel1 said:
SoutheastRidge said:
whatalife said:
It's just a January Thaw or so says JB. LOL! I don't care what everyone says...this warm up is something else.
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A January thaw doesn't normally last 2-3 weeks does it with temps 10-20 degrees above normal ?
Click to expand...
It's a thaw and its January, it can last until February 1st, if need be! Come on Carrollton
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Lets be real. Our entire winter is usually just one big thaw with a little bit of cold mixed in. No real thing as a January thaw in the south.
 
olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
olhausen said:
Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
Click to expand...

Just curious. Where did you live before you moved to TN ?
Click to expand...


I grew up in San Diego until I was 26 years old. I moved to Tennessee in July of 2006 so you'd think I would hate the cold but I'm just the opposite. While the weather in San Diego is great it is also very boring when you get 70 and sunny day after day. I love the four seasons out here but I really love when it's cold and snowy. I'm outside much more often in the winter then I am during the summer.


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Never heard of someone moving from SD to TN ! I would love to live in SD. Even though the weather is boring, you can drive to the mountains and see snow.
 
olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
olhausen said:
Yeah I now have weeds and patches of grass in my yard which is absolutely nuts for up here. I've never had the grass start to grow until at least the first week of March and Some years as late as the second week of April. There's no doubt that this recent stretch of not falling below freezing will be the longest one in my 10 winters of living here.
Click to expand...

Just curious. Where did you live before you moved to TN ?
Click to expand...


I grew up in San Diego until I was 26 years old. I moved to Tennessee in July of 2006 so you'd think I would hate the cold but I'm just the opposite. While the weather in San Diego is great it is also very boring when you get 70 and sunny day after day. I love the four seasons out here but I really love when it's cold and snowy. I'm outside much more often in the winter then I am during the summer.


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Click to expand...

What made you wanna move to TN ? Just curious.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
olhausen said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Just curious. Where did you live before you moved to TN ?
Click to expand...


I grew up in San Diego until I was 26 years old. I moved to Tennessee in July of 2006 so you'd think I would hate the cold but I'm just the opposite. While the weather in San Diego is great it is also very boring when you get 70 and sunny day after day. I love the four seasons out here but I really love when it's cold and snowy. I'm outside much more often in the winter then I am during the summer.


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What made you wanna move to TN ? Just curious.
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Work relocation.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Shawn said:
Stormlover said:
Ridiculous comment. If you ever got a winter storm as good as Bama's players, you'd never forget it. :rolleyes:
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Bama would have won if bo didn't go out with injury.  Just sayin'.
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Who gives a crap about college football. It's all about the NFL baby. GO Falcons !
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Dallas has a score to settle with the Packers today



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SD, Mike vertice mentions about +4 strat warming underway in Atlantic. If it happens, what can we expect moving forward?
 
SD said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Any update on the announcements?

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We are getting the server transition going.  The other stuff won't be far behind. We are waiting in most things until the server is upgraded

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Sd, what u think about Mike vertices post about +4 standard deviation strat warming taking place in the pacific?  Would that help us at all? 
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Golf7070 said:
SD said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Any update on the announcements?

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We are getting the server transition going.  The other stuff won't be far behind. We are waiting in most things until the server is upgraded

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Sd, what u think about Mike vertices post about +4 standard deviation strat warming taking place in the pacific?  Would that help us at all? 
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Any strat warming helps in theory but it looks like the tropospheric pv is going into Asia first. It will help us if/when the epo ridge builds

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We are upgrading the server now.....things may be wonky for a bit

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SoutheastRidge said:
A January thaw doesn't normally last 2-3 weeks does it with temps 10-20 degrees above normal ?
Click to expand...

Don't know about areas north of me (TN, lower KY etc.) but north AL had many instances between 2000-08 where after short cold snaps it would stay in the 50s-70's for several weeks or more. I thought that was uncommon as a kid growing up in the 80s-mid 90s but then things turned around substantially from 09-15. I've learned in recent years its always been this way. Thats why living in the southeast is exciting. :)
 
SD said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Any update on the announcements?

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We are getting the server transition going.  The other stuff won't be far behind. We are waiting in most things until the server is upgraded

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Sd, I want to be clear about this lol. The strat warming will only help rebuild the Goa ridge in time? Would this help keepthe goa ridge in place a 
Little longer than its been so far? Also, I think the mjo will be a big player this time imo
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