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Pattern January Discussion

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NCSNOW said:
Rain Cold said:
ATLwxfan said:
Is that Yoda?

We can't predict the weather reliably within a week so I don't know how we could accurately do so this far out. Aside from ENSO. And with La Niña fading, who really knows what's coming?


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Somehow, Wilkes knows!  :)
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He reads the wildlife<birds e.t.c. / remember
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Oh yeah!  How could I forget.  Healing skies and so forth.

In all honesty, nature can tell you things...we've just mostly forgotten what to look for.  Its usefulness, however, seems more reasonably confined to the very short term as opposed to a predictive long range weather pattern forecasting tool.
 
SD said:
Looks like I missed some fun this morning :(
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How much did you get the other day? I logged almost exactly 3/4" of sleet and a dusting of snow. :( :(
 
Rain Cold said:
SD said:
Looks like I missed some fun this morning :(
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How much did you get the other day?  I logged almost exactly 3/4" of sleet and a dusting of snow. :( :(
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quarter-half inch of sleet and about an inch of snow. I think the GFS just had the wrong decimal place....1.25 instead of 12.5
 
olhausen said:
Oh yes this is a beautiful fantasy storm.

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SD said:
Rain Cold said:
SD said:
Looks like I missed some fun this morning :(
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How much did you get the other day?  I logged almost exactly 3/4" of sleet and a dusting of snow. :( :(
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quarter-half inch of sleet and about an inch of snow. I think the GFS just had the wrong decimal place....1.25 instead of 12.5
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Yes!  That's the conversion we'll use from now on.  Divide by 10.  I can't tell you the last time I have seen a long-duration heavy snow in the daytime.  I'm serious.  I've had a few snowfalls over the last few years down here, and even some heavy snow bursts, but not anything that was heavy in the daytime that lasted for more than 15 minutes or so.  I think the last snow I had here that was more than 4 inches was the Christmas storm in 2009 or 10?  We got roughly 8" and most of that fell before I woke up.
 
Yea, this pattern definitely has that severe wx look to it... To see this kind of negatively tilted trough on an ENS mean near day 10 is certainly impressive, and makes sense given canonical pattern progression near the end of a warm-up in mid-late winter...

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A weak ENSO is good...we don't want a strong La Nina or a strong El Nino...we want it neutral

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History says that if a winter storm is going to happen in the more southerly areas of the southeast that can get it, February is your most likely month for it to happen. It may not make sense and it's unfortunate because its not at the coldest time of the year, but it's true. The biggest winter storms happen in February/March.

It hasn't been long since the last significant winter storm that happened in February though, so it may be totally true that the more southerly areas are done this winter with their chances. They don't happen often but when they do happen they are big.
 
Another run another look from the GFS. I noticed last night that the para-GFS and Op had considerable differences as well. Yay fun times ahead
 
SD said:
Another run another look from the GFS. I noticed last night that the para-GFS and Op had considerable differences as well. Yay fun times ahead
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Well look on the bright side it still shows some southern storm potential that should yield winners and losers up and down the east coast....
 
This 70 degree weather feels like it's 90 degrees...I was used to the cold that's why this 70 degree weather feels hot. Lol.

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GeorgiaGirl said:
History says that if a winter storm is going to happen in the more southerly areas of the southeast that can get it, February is your most likely month for it to happen. It may not make sense and it's unfortunate because its not at the coldest time of the year, but it's true. The biggest winter storms happen in February/March.

It hasn't been long since the last significant winter storm that happened in February though, so it may be totally true that the more southerly areas are done this winter with their chances. They don't happen often but when they do happen they are big.
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Well said. Interestingly, this historical frequency for far south winter storms tends to pick up only AFTER the first week of Feb. (2/8+) for whatever reason. The period 2/8-15 has had a good number of them whereas that's not the case for 2/1-7 and there have been a decent number of them all of the way into the first 5 or so days of March. Far south storm tracks for the win for these folks.
 
Like the low anomalies along the southern tier. Active southern jet? :)
 
Sure looks like we're going to have a lot fun moving forward warm temps/severe weather/cold temps/possible winter storms...What's not to love about living in the SE during winter.


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