Pattern January Discussion

[accu35]

If GFS verifies, someone will get hammered by the end of Jan, once or twice with these storms rolling in from the Southwest

 

[Snowman63]

I love fantasy storms...

 

[Bsudweather]

I love fantasy storms...

That's a good look, we need to send that low further south and reel it in!

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[SnowHusky]

Actually that may not turn out to be a fantasy storm. The new Euro monthly has a similar solution around this time period. Even the past runs have showed some storms coming up from the southern stream late month. Late month will be interesting for sure. The image I have attached is from the Euro monthly.

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[Snowman63]

I'll post the clown for good measure... 

 

[olhausen]

Oh yes this is a beautiful fantasy storm.

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[malak05]

Oh yes this is a beautiful fantasy storm.

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Nothing to see here folks just these Clown maps getting my hopes your hopes and such haha

I will check back in like 7 days and see if it's still there and then go bonkers if so

 

[Jon]

Oh yes this is a beautiful fantasy storm.

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Nothing to see here folks just these Clown maps getting my hopes your hopes and such haha

I will check back in like 7 days and see if it's still there and then go bonkers if so

Pattern supports it honestly. I predicted fantasy storms showing up on the models two days ago on AmWx, it's easy to do when you start to see LR modeling hinting a pattern forming Day 15 - operationals will be lagged behind by a few days. the same systems will likely go away but others will reappear, as long as the pattern advertised on the weeklies and ensembles stay we will continue to see impressive weenie runs.

JMA had a similar pattern with a split flow for weeks 3-4

And the CFSv2 is coming around for February

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[SD]

Oh yes this is a beautiful fantasy storm.






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Nothing to see here folks just these Clown maps getting my hopes your hopes and such haha

I will check back in like 7 days and see if it's still there and then go bonkers if so

Pattern supports it honestly. I predicted fantasy storms showing up on the models two days ago on AmWx, it's easy to do when you start to see LR modeling hinting a pattern forming Day 15 - operationals will be lagged behind by a few days. the same systems will likely go away but others will reappear, as long as the pattern advertised on the weeklies and ensembles stay we will continue to see impressive weenie runs.

JMA had a similar pattern with a split flow for weeks 3-4


And the CFSv2 is coming around for February



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Agreed. The day 7-10 look on the models supports some type of threat in the day days 12-16 range from today. Overall things look pretty good to me and I am happy to see the CFS trending colder for Feb

 

[Stormlover]

Oh yes this is a beautiful fantasy storm.

why are you on here following it now then?

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Whenever we do get a winter storm to track in Feb, which I think we will second week or later, it is going to be widespread and strong IMO as the atmosphere tries to balance out our 70 degree weather and arctic air. I expect lots of precip, heavy, severe, a plethora of precip types including heavy rains for some. This pattern is not for the occasional clipper or suppression city type of events. I think it will be a more South-East vs Mid Atlantic vs New England type of storm where there will be big time winners and losers up and down the east coast.

 

[Rain Cold]

Whenever we do get a winter storm to track in Feb, which I think we will second week or later, it is going to be widespread and strong IMO as the atmosphere tries to balance out our 70 degree weather and arctic air. I expect lots of precip, heavy, severe, a plethora of precip types including heavy rains for some. This pattern is not for the occasional clipper or suppression city type of events. I think it will be a more South-East vs Mid Atlantic vs New England type of storm where there will be big time winners and losers up and down the east coast.

Sounds like the vague specifics of a pretty typical eastern winter storm.

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Kinda like this time frame IMO.

Old Farmers Almanac
Charlotte/Raleigh Feb 9-12: Rainy periods, snow inland; cold;
Boone/Apps Feb 11-15: Snowstorm, then flurries, cold;

 

[GaStorm]

Whenever we do get a winter storm to track in Feb, which I think we will second week or later, it is going to be widespread and strong IMO as the atmosphere tries to balance out our 70 degree weather and arctic air. I expect lots of precip, heavy, severe, a plethora of precip types including heavy rains for some. This pattern is not for the occasional clipper or suppression city type of events. I think it will be a more South-East vs Mid Atlantic vs New England type of storm where there will be big time winners and losers up and down the east coast.

Thanks for confirming you are Timothy Clyde on the other board. We know you think the 2nd week but don't have any specific reasoning. Everyone else has backed up their thoughts but you.

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Whenever we do get a winter storm to track in Feb, which I think we will second week or later, it is going to be widespread and strong IMO as the atmosphere tries to balance out our 70 degree weather and arctic air. I expect lots of precip, heavy, severe, a plethora of precip types including heavy rains for some. This pattern is not for the occasional clipper or suppression city type of events. I think it will be a more South-East vs Mid Atlantic vs New England type of storm where there will be big time winners and losers up and down the east coast.

Sounds like the vague specifics of a pretty typical eastern winter storm.

Well I am trying to indirectly say (without hurting ones feelings and getting banned) that the pattern has now shifted away from winter weather as one goes further south-east of Raleigh and also further south and west back towards Columbia SC, and the Atlanta metro. These areas were only prime to see something substantial at the onset of the winter.

I will have more on this in the weeks to come as the pattern starts favoring some areas much more than others.

 

[Rain Cold]

Whenever we do get a winter storm to track in Feb, which I think we will second week or later, it is going to be widespread and strong IMO as the atmosphere tries to balance out our 70 degree weather and arctic air. I expect lots of precip, heavy, severe, a plethora of precip types including heavy rains for some. This pattern is not for the occasional clipper or suppression city type of events. I think it will be a more South-East vs Mid Atlantic vs New England type of storm where there will be big time winners and losers up and down the east coast.

Sounds like the vague specifics of a pretty typical eastern winter storm.

Well I am trying to indirectly say (without hurting ones feelings and getting banned) that the pattern has now shifted away from winter weather as one goes further south-east of Raleigh and also further south and west back towards Columbia SC, and the Atlanta metro. These areas were only prime to see something substantial at the onset of the winter.

I will have more on this in the weeks to come as the pattern starts favoring some areas much more than others.

The areas you mention don't see a lot of winter weather to begin with, so you're likely to be correct, just on a statistical basis.  That being said, it would be hard for me to make that determination at this time on any other basis.  We don't yet know the extent of the pattern change that is likely to occur.  Difficult to see.  Always in motion is the future.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Sounds like the vague specifics of a pretty typical eastern winter storm.

Well I am trying to indirectly say (without hurting ones feelings and getting banned) that the pattern has now shifted away from winter weather as one goes further south-east of Raleigh and also further south and west back towards Columbia SC, and the Atlanta metro. These areas were only prime to see something substantial at the onset of the winter.

I will have more on this in the weeks to come as the pattern starts favoring some areas much more than others.

The areas you mention don't see a lot of winter weather to begin with, so you're likely to be correct, just on a statistical basis.  That being said, it would be hard for me to make that determination at this time on any other basis.  We don't yet know the extent of the pattern change that is likely to occur.  Difficult to see.  Always in motion is the future.

Is that Yoda?

We can't predict the weather reliably within a week so I don't know how we could accurately do so this far out. Aside from ENSO. And with La Niña fading, who really knows what's coming?


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[Rain Cold]

Well I am trying to indirectly say (without hurting ones feelings and getting banned) that the pattern has now shifted away from winter weather as one goes further south-east of Raleigh and also further south and west back towards Columbia SC, and the Atlanta metro. These areas were only prime to see something substantial at the onset of the winter.

I will have more on this in the weeks to come as the pattern starts favoring some areas much more than others.

The areas you mention don't see a lot of winter weather to begin with, so you're likely to be correct, just on a statistical basis.  That being said, it would be hard for me to make that determination at this time on any other basis.  We don't yet know the extent of the pattern change that is likely to occur.  Difficult to see.  Always in motion is the future.

Is that Yoda?

We can't predict the weather reliably within a week so I don't know how we could accurately do so this far out. Aside from ENSO. And with La Niña fading, who really knows what's coming?


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Somehow, Wilkes knows! 

 

[NCSNOW]

The areas you mention don't see a lot of winter weather to begin with, so you're likely to be correct, just on a statistical basis.  That being said, it would be hard for me to make that determination at this time on any other basis.  We don't yet know the extent of the pattern change that is likely to occur.  Difficult to see.  Always in motion is the future.

Is that Yoda?

We can't predict the weather reliably within a week so I don't know how we could accurately do so this far out. Aside from ENSO. And with La Niña fading, who really knows what's coming?


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Somehow, Wilkes knows! 

He reads the wildlife<birds e.t.c. / remember

 

[SD]

Looks like I missed some fun this morning