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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Thanks to Webber for putting the time into this event.

Everyone will see tomorrow evening as the SPC Mesoscale Maps start to show real time conditions just how strong the warm air aloft will be.

There is a reason that both WPC and the local forecast offices are discounting the ECMWF on this event.

WPC virtually never gets it wrong.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Thanks to Webber for putting the time into this event.

Everyone will see tomorrow evening as the SPC Mesoscale Maps start to show real time conditions just how strong the warm air aloft will be.

There is a reason that both WPC and the local forecast offices are discounting the ECMWF on this event.

WPC virtually never gets it wrong.
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EE rule (NAM+Euro combo) > All
 
3k nam looks good to anyone have accumulations for that one


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Pivotal's 12k NAM out put showing potential for ZR, any merit in that right now?
1609943673332.png
 
3km NAM actually looks solid to how I think this event turns out .. quick front end thump which breaks to sleet and maybe some rain but then cold air quickly rushes in behind the system ending everything as sleet/snow on the backside with heavier banding
 
Webberweather53 said:
Snow depth > clown maps in setups like this w/ above freezing sfc temps, warm ground, and mixing w/ IP & rain.

10:1 clown maps show a ton of snow east of the mtns:

View attachment 63435



Reality however suggests bare ground is more likely


View attachment 63438
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So, the 3K was kind of dry for my area (I know I mentioned this before) for the Christmas "storm" so actually I am quite happy with this output, though that 1st map would make me happier if that was reality for obvious reasons.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Column max temps on the 3km NAM are above freezing basically everywhere east of the mtns save a few random spots near the Triad even at the end of this event. This means sleet or cold rain is more likely than snow.

View attachment 63445
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Honestly I’ll take a slushy inch of sleet for the first system of this pattern ??‍♂️
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nah snow depth is gonna be a lot closer reality in this setup than snow ratios output clown maps
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Oh I agree, sleet compaction. Not to mention your only hope is rates,top down cooling, winning warm nose battles. Way more weight to argue low side of even those kuchera maps than verification, + side.
Beats chasing the ole 10 day pattern even though both will probably yield nada when all is said an done.
 
For upstate people. Any accumulation even a dusting with this is a win


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If I was in Roanoke right now, I'd be licking my chops for 3 reasons:

1) Warm advection

2) Isentropical upglide (via CAD)

3) Orographic lift.

These are what I'd call the "big three" of lifting mechanisms that NWP models (esp globals like the GFS & Euro) often completely whiff on & grossly underestimate in most winter storms. Any one of the 3 being present is a plus if you're hoping for a NW trend, but given that all will be working simultaneously in earnest here, it seems a last second NW shift in snow totals is virtually inevitable imo. Thus, I very strongly believe the mountains of southwestern Virginia are gonna cash in nicely.

1609944632297.png
 
accums prob aint happening but getting under a solid snow shower will be a win. sucks seeing this output knowing it will likely be rain though.
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_49.png
 
hr 54 on the 3k nam so take it w a grian of salt but this shows our best shot is that back deformation band to get under a nice thump. before this has a nasty warm nose.
1609945256992.png
 
DopplerWx said:
hr 54 on the 3k nam so take it w a grian of salt but this shows our best shot is that back deformation band to get under a nice thump. before this has a nasty warm nose.
View attachment 63452
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That is just some truly nasty warm advection and veering below 700mb there. Gotta hope the warm nose doesn't get too strong because if it takes too long to erode near the end of the storm, nobody is gonna see a good IP/SN thumping.

1609945381243.png
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 63443
Spartanburg gets 3.5", I get 5.5" and the border gets 8" lol
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12km NAM snow depth shows only 0.6" in Spartanburg and at most an inch or so near the border & even that is a pretty optimistic here.

Should be looking at maps like these and not snow ratio clown maps.

1609945531820.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
12km NAM snow depth shows only 0.6" in Spartanburg and at most an inch or so near the border & even that is a pretty optimistic here.

Should be looking at maps like these and not snow ratio clown maps.

View attachment 63456
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I kind of surprised to see the snow depth that high on the NAM in the triad, how do you feel about this?
snod.us_ma.png
 
The evolution of the precip field on the NAM kind of reminds me of the big storm earlier this month in the NE US where the heaviest precip was in the cold conveyor belt on the extreme NW edge of the precipitation shield aided by warm advection, frontogenesis from melting hydrometeors aloft on the leading edge of the warm nose partially offsetting warm advection, & an orographic assist.

1609945695352.png
 
I see the upstate getting 1-2" with some being Sleet due to WAA. This will be location dependent IMO the closer you are to the SC/NC border the more you will see.

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