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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

NCZ033-035-048>050-052-053-059-062>065-501>507-509-080400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0001.210108T0000Z-210109T0500Z/
Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs,
Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso,
Cove Creek, Asheville, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin,
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers,
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher,
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek,
Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton,
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood,
Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
251 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
to 9 inches.

* WHERE...The northern foothills and much of the mountains of
North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Friday commute. The
weight of the heavy, wet snow could bring down power lines,
causing scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures falling into the 20s on
Friday night will cause slippery road conditions to persist
well into the weekend following the storm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
 
Winter weather advisory out now. Calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT, A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain will overspread the
Advisory area late tonight through Friday morning, with a few
hour period of all snow possible Friday morning. The
precipitation will likely turn to a cold rain during the midday
and afternoon hours, before changing back to snow Friday evening
and early Friday night. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches are expected, with lesser amounts --generally a coating
to an inch-- along the southeast edge of the Advisory area.

* WHERE, The Piedmont and western Sandhills of central North
Carolina.

* WHEN, From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS, Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact both the Friday morning and evening
commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be obtained by
visiting DriveNC.gov.
 
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Also looks like Wake County schools are still going to have snow days in a way. Just got this email.

During the 2020-2021 school year, an asynchronous learning day will be used when the weather prevents us from having in-person classes. No make-up day will be required. Schools will take into consideration that winter weather and snow days are a time-honored celebration in our community and assign work accordingly. While there will be requirements for work, families should expect to also have time to celebrate their own traditions. Families will continue to receive an email and text message when the school day is modified due to inclement weather. When possible, the announcement will be made the day before so families can plan.
 
One thing that I’ve noticed today is that temperatures are few degrees below forecast for much of the area. I was forecasted to see a high of 51 and the warmest it’s been is the 46 I’m at right now.
 
My final, I think areas down towards even Fayetteville could see some flakes/sleet pellets, the more NW you go the better chances of you cashing in on the backside deform band With snow/IP, especially around the Piedmont of NC towards CLT/GSO, again, to be safe, look at the lower sides of things, because wet soil/marginal temps could easily wreak havoc on snow trying to accumulate, but if the snow is heavy enough, there you go, I think areas further east need to look on the low side here, as they could struggle to get rid of the warm nose even towards the backend 0F7DB212-8399-4752-A911-D34604DF02DA.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
My final, I think areas down towards even Fayetteville could see some flakes/sleet pellets, the more NW you go the better chances of you cashing in on the backside deform band With snow/IP, especially around the Piedmont of NC towards CLT/GSO, again, to be safe, look at the lower sides of things, because wet soil/marginal temps could easily wreak havoc on snow trying to accumulate, but if the snow is heavy enough, there you go, I think areas further east need to look on the low side here, as they could struggle to get rid of the warm nose even towards the backend View attachment 64028
Click to expand...
I think I’m going to squeak something out on the backend. I feel it in my old decrepit bones.
 
Worth mentioning wrt backside snow potential:

The exact upper low track is gonna be key here imo and deep-layer cold advection over time will lead to large-scale subsidence area-wide tomorrow evening as the precip changes from rain to snow/sleet, we're gonna need some additional forcing for ascent help to keep generating precip back in the colder air.

Based on the latest 3km NAM & HRRR runs, the strongest differential cyclonic vorticity advection to compensate for sinking from cold advection will be down towards the SC/NC state line, implying a greater potential for backside snow/sleet in areas near the US HWY 74 corridor like Charlotte & Fayetteville vs Raleigh-Durham, at least as things currently stand.


1610053327869.png


1610053335800.png
 
I don’t know...I think the northern upstate may change over faster and have more snow than NWS GSP is showing. It is a few degrees colder than the forecasted high at my location and these are snow clouds...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Fwiw, the Garcia and Cook Methods (linked below) seem to generally imply the potential for up to 2" of snowfall underneath this upper low tomorrow evening east of the mtns. Sleet, melting from warm sfc temps and the ground will cut into that too but I think this is really the true ceiling here.

I'll gladly take a dusting but an inch would be a nice surprise and I think a few locales will probably see it.

https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt417/powerpoint/417_wk1.pdf
 
Temperature definitely dropping a little faster then forecast. Already heading into the 30s and the FFC forecast didn’t have me falling that far for another 2-3 hours.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Worth mentioning wrt backside snow potential:

The exact upper low track is gonna be key here imo and deep-layer cold advection over time will lead to large-scale subsidence area-wide tomorrow evening as the precip changes from rain to snow/sleet, we're gonna need some additional forcing for ascent help to keep generating precip back in the colder air.

Based on the latest 3km NAM & HRRR runs, the strongest differential cyclonic vorticity advection to compensate for sinking from cold advection will be down towards the SC/NC state line, implying a greater potential for backside snow/sleet in areas near the US HWY 74 corridor like Charlotte & Fayetteville vs Raleigh-Durham, at least as things currently stand.


View attachment 64032


View attachment 64033
Click to expand...

The reason I bring this up, notice where the heavier precip is on the 3km NAM tomorrow evening. Right over where the dCVA is strongest near Charlotte-Fayetteville. Snow is heavier and persists longer down there vs over the Trianglenam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh31-38.gif.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The reason I bring this up, notice where the heavier precip is on the 3km NAM tomorrow evening. Right over where the dCVA is strongest near Charlotte-Fayetteville. Snow is heavier and persists longer down there vs over the TriangleView attachment 64047.
Click to expand...
Lol that snow band looks similar to feb 2013
 
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