Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[Brick Tamland]

And RAH has this.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol that snow band looks similar to feb 2013

Haha yep just a lesser version of Feb 2013 because CAPE is garbage this time around which also means lower rates. Nonetheless, I think there's potential for a few spots to pick up an inch or so where ever this dCVA and coincident banding sets up. Right now, the models are hinting that this may occur near the NC/SC, thus both of our locations would be in the driver seat for that, but still plenty of time to sort this out.

 

[ForsythSnow]

With temps being a littler on the cooler side than indicated, will this initial precip help cool the column better and perhaps be useful?

It would have to be constantly heavy for more of the event to be snow. When it lets up the column will warm.

 

[BufordWX]

Temperature definitely dropping a little faster then forecast. Already heading into the 30s and the FFC forecast didn’t have me falling that far for another 2-3 hours.

Wow the temperature has really plunged under the current precipitation. Down to 38.5.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HRRR earlier for 00z
New one for 00z and that’s 4 hours from now, it’s not even showing a mix right now in Near the A

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Light sleet. Would like to get some heavy stuff to cool us down.

 

[EmersonGA]

Slowly watching the mping reports from the south crawl north. Seeing sleet and snow mixes in them.

When I left Acworth it was probable a third sloppy wet flakes and 40.

 

[NCSNOW]

The HRRR has four inch an hour snow rates over Randolph county @packfan98. ?
View attachment 64019

Thats at 6 a.m. Sign me up

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Already reports of rain snow mix in Suwannee

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM looks slightly to warm from its earlier forecast at 21z at H85

 

[weatherfide]

Wow the temperature has really plunged under the current precipitation. Down to 38.5.

Yep, down to 41 here but all rain and will remain so. A good night to read a book by the fire.

 

[jackendrickwx]

God bless you Chris justus

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

NAM looks slightly to warm from its earlier forecast at 21z at H85View attachment 64056View attachment 64059

Woah... that’s not bad @ForsythSnow

 

[iGRXY]

So are we seeing things appear to be colder and mixing starting much earlier further south than anticipated?

 

[ryan1234]

Interesting to see these snow/sleet reports this far south. That I don't believe was even forecasted in any modeling this early on. This hints at an overperformance scenario for someone on this board who is not going to see it coming.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Special weather statement for non-WWA areas

 

[iGRXY]

NAM looks slightly to warm from its earlier forecast at 21z at H85View attachment 64056View attachment 64059

The difference between the 3K and Nam were really big that 18z run. 3K was some 3-4 degrees colder aloft than the NAM and much earlier. You mix the thermals from the 3K and the precip from the NAM and you're looking at a much bigger spread of snow further south.

 

[BufordWX]

I can definitely say there are some very wet snowflakes occasionally mixing in now.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

I can definitely say there are some very wet snowflakes occasionally mixing in now.

This has to be a decent sign

 

[Chazwin]

Worth mentioning wrt backside snow potential:

The exact upper low track is gonna be key here imo and deep-layer cold advection over time will lead to large-scale subsidence area-wide tomorrow evening as the precip changes from rain to snow/sleet, we're gonna need some additional forcing for ascent help to keep generating precip back in the colder air.

Based on the latest 3km NAM & HRRR runs, the strongest differential cyclonic vorticity advection to compensate for sinking from cold advection will be down towards the SC/NC state line, implying a greater potential for backside snow/sleet in areas near the US HWY 74 corridor like Charlotte & Fayetteville vs Raleigh-Durham, at least as things currently stand.


View attachment 64032


View attachment 64033

Yeah the 3km NAM has been fairly consistent with this today showing my part of Union County with around 2 inches and now HRRR is steadily showing it as well. I was wondering if GSP might include us in the WWA but I can see given the potential that it’s a more in the way of localized nature, they’ll probably pull the trigger later if the models stay consistent with it through the night.