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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Lowtown said:
I’m kinda surprised RAH is still going with 1” for W-S/GSO as the “most likely” scenario. Virtually all guidance shows a warning-level accumulation. They’re the pros, but it seems like there’s a big bust potential there.
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You can't buy into the maps showing the accumulations you are seeing. Obviously if the temperature was colder I would agree but looks like a good snow flying around event with grass and trees accumulating and slushy roads. Any storm can always have a big bust potential but we have seen this same song and dance many times. As a snow and ice contractor I have seen this alot. I am sure if things change then they will adjust their thoughts
 
Bsud said:
My bet is GSP issues at the very minimum a WWA for upstate this afternoon.

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From Anderson and Union and north. WSW north of hwy 11 in Oconee , Pickens, and Greenville maybe.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Reminds me a little bit of Feb 2013 tbh evolution-wise. Big difference is this time we just won't have quite the CAPE to support the kind of convective rates we saw then but still could easily pop an inch or so.

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Backend stuff fires up right on the lee side of the mountains/upstate area. Some people are going to be in for a big surprise on the backside of this holds true.
 
Was really looking like a decent chance at a dusting to maybe an inch around here now i don’t think that’s the case
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Was really looking like a decent chance at a dusting to maybe an inch around here now i don’t think that’s the case
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Just curious, why are you throwing in the towel? Sure, it could go either way but you are close enough that I wouldn't give up with a ULL situation.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Just curious, why are you throwing in the towel? Sure, it could go either way but you are close enough that I wouldn't give up with a ULL situation.
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2 words: Warm nose. Best case is we see rate-driven snow for a long enough duration to put that down but that rate-driven snow isn't looking too good right now.
 
Oconeexman said:
Yep its a good group!
On a weather note GSP is looking to issue or expand advisories and watches soon from what I've heard for the upstate and Ne Ga
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Of course all of the current ones are "one county away" lol. however, based on what I saw seen on the models, I would not be surprised for an advisory to be issued here. looks to be a very close all and cut off between the rain/snow line. the cut off is currently a little south of the WSW
 
KyloG said:
Meso's agree on the PTI region as a region to watch for possible heavy snow...along with western NC.

Danville to GSO area looks like a good spot to chase.

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I think the best accums east of the mtns will be NW of the Triad even taking these models verbatim. Slightly more favorable ground temps, sfc temps, and weaker warm nose aloft in the extreme NW piedmont also encourages better snow-liquid ratios & less sleet not to mention the higher elevation as you get NW will encourage some very modest orographic ascent in the early-middle parts of the storm.
 
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