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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

DixieBlizzard said:
Just curious, why are you throwing in the towel? Sure, it could go either way but you are close enough that I wouldn't give up with a ULL situation.
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The HRRR was my biggest hope and it keeps us mostly rain. Like forsythsnow said though if we can get good rates who knows. It’s not over I’m just not as confident as i was last night
 
DixieBlizzard said:
@ForsythSnow Is this Cumming (12z Nam)... ;)

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In all seriousness, being in that proximity, even with the warm nose considered (modeled), the ULL's have a mind of their own. You guys are not far from 1200', correct?
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I actually live at exactly 1200' and am in the north-central part of the county. My main concern is rates and until I see it on radar and see the CC line I don't have much hope for more than a quick heavy burst at the very end and that's it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
2 words: Warm nose. Best case is we see rate-driven snow for a long enough duration to put that down but that rate-driven snow isn't looking too good right now.
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ForsythSnow said:
I actually live at exactly 1200' and am in the north-central part of the county. My main concern is rates and until I see it on radar and see the CC line I don't have much hope for more than a quick heavy burst at the very end and that's it.
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Well, good luck. We may all need it but I just have an inclination that this may over-perform, especially in your area.
 
This feels like one of those systems where the local NWS offices will be spitting out last-minute winter storm warnings/advisories. While local mets scramble to change their forecasts as well. Luckily, I don't think roads will be an issue outside the mountains. Which is good because I have yet to see one DOT truck around.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Reminds me a little bit of Feb 2013 tbh evolution-wise. Big difference is this time we just won't have quite the CAPE to support the kind of convective rates we saw then but still could easily pop an inch or so.

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Heavy snow over JH house in Ft Inn! We toss
 
NWS NDFD forecast snowfall. I generally agree w/ this overall. I think an inch or two is probably a good call for now in the Triad, bigger amounts to the NW in the far NW piedmont.

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Does today's weather pre-nightfall have much of an impact on tomorrow's chances?
 
Guys, I would discount the globals this close and rely on the NAM for a more accurate representation. Especially the 3Km Nam which has a much higher resolution than the 12Km. It picks up the potential warm nose much better and it would be a 6-7 to 1 ratio of Sn instead of 10/1. I think one of the sweet spots could be Wlikesboro to GSO and the other in the SW mountains. Sorry to say that there will only be very minor accumulations from Burlington South and East until you get to NE NC where they could have a nice back end thump
 
ryan1234 said:
This feels like one of those systems where the local NWS offices will be spitting out last-minute winter storm warnings/advisories. While local mets scramble to change their forecasts as well. Luckily, I don't think roads will be an issue outside the mountains. Which is good because I have yet to see one DOT truck around.
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Honestly, even for areas that see a few inches of snow they can probably get by with WWAs. Impacts should be fairly minimal given wet ground, and marginal surface temps. I’m not sure even 3” will really stick to roadways.
 
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