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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Looks like it too far east for us

I'm in Easley. 26 for me this am but already up to 32.5. I'm afraid climo is going to win out for us Oconee/Pickens guys and there just isn't going to be enough cold.
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Yes that’s what im thinking as well. Greenville is in a better spot then us


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In all honesty though upper level low banding features and such aren’t really figured out until they form on the day of the event .. really no use looking into anything about that upper low until day of .. even then almost every time the evolution of the precip is always different than what the short range guidance shows us
 
1610029770089.png
I've updated my map based on trends in the short range models yesterday and this morning. The ULL has trended further south and Snow starts to creep down to the I85 corridor sooner. (3K Nam actually has it by midnight). Some local mets have started the trend of pushing their accumulations further south as well. The mountains are almost a bet to get at 6" here. The Western escarpment looks perfect as well. The further west you are in this situation the better it looks to get the heaviest precip and colder temperatures. I think those south of 85 will see some snow but it's all dependent on the backend stuff. Ratios will likely be higher as colder air hits the column and the rates in that band will be very heavy. Southern Cherokee County, Southern Spartanburg county and suburbs, and a good portion of Greenville think can get an inch with pockets of slightly higher amounts with that back end stuff. That extends towards Charlotte eastward. Areas along and North of 85 it looks like the frontend and middle will deliver a little more. 2 inches I think is likely here with pockets of higher. The closer you get to the mountains (Inman, TR, Chesnee) the better chance you'll have to see those higher amounts as would areas along and west of 77. The mountains of SC towards Landrum will likely see 3-6" here with the higher end on the mountain tops. I am going to watch throughout the day to see how the mesoscale real time analysts are matching the short range models and the trends of the ULL to continue to push south as we have seen so far.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 63898
I've updated my map based on trends in the short range models yesterday and this morning. The ULL has trended further south and Snow starts to creep down to the I85 corridor sooner. (3K Nam actually has it by midnight). Some local mets have started the trend of pushing their accumulations further south as well. The mountains are almost a bet to get at 6" here. The Western escarpment looks perfect as well. The further west you are in this situation the better it looks to get the heaviest precip and colder temperatures. I think those south of 85 will see some snow but it's all dependent on the backend stuff. Ratios will likely be higher as colder air hits the column and the rates in that band will be very heavy. Southern Cherokee County, Southern Spartanburg county and suburbs, and a good portion of Greenville think can get an inch with pockets of slightly higher amounts with that back end stuff. That extends towards Charlotte eastward. Areas along and North of 85 it looks like the frontend and middle will deliver a little more. 2 inches I think is likely here with pockets of higher. The closer you get to the mountains (Inman, TR, Chesnee) the better chance you'll have to see those higher amounts as would areas along and west of 77. The mountains of SC towards Landrum will likely see 3-6" here with the higher end on the mountain tops. I am going to watch throughout the day to see how the mesoscale real time analysts are matching the short range models and the trends of the ULL to continue to push south as we have seen so far.
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You don’t have a warm nose there I like it. Hope that pans out


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Webberweather53 said:
Reminds me a little bit of Feb 2013 tbh evolution-wise. Big difference is this time we just won't have quite the CAPE to support the kind of convective rates we saw then but still could easily pop an inch or so.

View attachment 63900
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Yeah these features usually over produce so it’ll be interesting to see how everything translates tomorrow
 
RGEM looks better for the VA crew:
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
I'll say this, whatever regions can stay snow and get both the initial thump and deform band are going to see many hours of snow. Looks like that area might be just north of the Triad proper. If you only get the deform band for areas south of there, it still looks like you could still see 6-7 hours of snow. Could be fun or disappointing. We never know.
 
I’m kinda surprised RAH is still going with 1” for W-S/GSO as the “most likely” scenario. Virtually all guidance shows a warning-level accumulation. They’re the pros, but it seems like there’s a big bust potential there.
 
packfan98 said:
I'll say this, whatever regions can stay snow and get both the initial thump and deform band are going to see many hours of snow. Looks like that area might be just north of the Triad proper. If you only get the deform band for areas south of there, it still looks like you could still see 6-7 hours of snow. Could be fun or disappointing. We never know.
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And those that get under that deform band are going to see some good rates, even if it comes after rain and equals minor accums those rates always fun
 
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