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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Updated call map for this event. Feeling pretty confident that most of us east of the mountains in NC will see some snow/sleet at some point in this event.

I think the north-central Blue ridge jackpots w/ >6" on eastern facing slopes, 2-5" ish for @BIG FROSTY & Birdman.

1-2" is probably a good call in the triad, could see areas just NW of Greensboro sneaking 3-4". North-central Charlotte metro, central piedmont, and areas just NW of Raleigh probably will see at least a light dusting of snow/sleet accumulation on the backend and start out as a wintry mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain before eventually changing to sleet and probably snow on the backend. For Raleigh & pts SE in the coastal plain this is mostly a rain event, might briefly start out as a mix before going to rain. Expecting lots of trace-dusting amounts from the backend thump down here, could see a few spots seeing more than that, afraid to go much higher than a 0.5" given uncertainties in the banding, crappier low-level thermals, and ground temps that would melt some of the initial snow/sleet, especially if it's not falling hard enough.
January 8-9 2021 NC Forecast Snowmap2.jpg
 
I think i'll chase tomorrow. Will get off at noon and head North. Goal will be to try to catch the back end band & see if I can intercept an area of snow that wasn't calling for it. Should be an interesting dynamic part of the system as it's pulling away.
 
At least for my area the NAM is running too high for my current temps. 3K by 2 degrees and the regular NAM by 5.

Edit: most recent HRRR is too warm by 3 degrees and RGEM by 3 as well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Updated call map for this event. Feeling pretty confident that most of us east of the mountains in NC will see some snow/sleet at some point in this event.

I think the north-central Blue ridge jackpots w/ >6" on eastern facing slopes, 2-5" ish for @BIG FROSTY & Birdman.

1-2" is probably a good call in the triad, could see areas just NW of Greensboro sneaking 3-4". North-central Charlotte metro, central piedmont, and areas just NW of Raleigh probably will see at least a light dusting of snow/sleet accumulation on the backend and start out as a wintry mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain before eventually changing to sleet and probably snow on the backend. For Raleigh & pts SE in the coastal plain this is mostly a rain event, might briefly start out as a mix before going to rain. Expecting lots of trace-dusting amounts from the backend thump down here, could see a few spots seeing more than that, afraid to go much higher than a 0.5" given uncertainties in the banding, crappier low-level thermals, and ground temps that would melt some of the initial snow/sleet, especially if it's not falling hard enough.
View attachment 63935
Click to expand...
I'm in 3-6 range. Great map
 
Leaving CHS heading NW tonight. Gonna try and find a bigger city that will see more accumulations and get some traffic footage there tomorrow morning...and maybe again tomorrow evening. Hopefully will get some footage... After that, it will be about time to head towards our next system by Sunday. I like this potential back to back. ❄❄
 
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