• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

January 6th-7th Potential Storm

Decided to pull the trigger and make the thread, mods feel free to lock it if you feel like it's too soon.
Perfect! The family is ready for a 6 hour trip to Banner Elk, just need the NC experts to chime in on whether that's a good choice or not.
 
How much does what happens tonight affect Saturday and what happens Saturday affect Tuesday? Especially in the borderline areas and Charlotte, Atlanta metros.
 
EURO is hell bent on an Apps cutter still before transferring to the Peedee region of SC.
Not sure I'd call it an Apps cutter, gets shunted east pretty quick and may not be done adjusting. When it comes to CAD, as bad as the NAM can certainly be, it along with other hi-res models will have a much better handle on boundary layer temps/icing potential. Never under estimate the power of CAD
 
How much does what happens tonight affect Saturday and what happens Saturday affect Tuesday? Especially in the borderline areas and Charlotte, Atlanta metros.
How much does what happens tonight affect Saturday and what happens Saturday affect Tuesday? Especially in the borderline areas and Charlotte, Atlanta metros.
Ok first to qualify" I am not a Met, but have some 50 years of tracking weather here in Metro ATL. The system today/tonight will have minimal impact on the system for the 6th -7th. What that will be "riding on" That will be determined by the depth/strength of the CAD/Wedge for this area. A variation of just a 100 or so miles in the placement of the Mid Atlantic High (or it being stronger than progged) or a northward shift in the track of the Low by a little as 50 miles can change mid 30s and rain to 30 and ZR. This will not be a 'ground type" ZR event as ground temps will remain above freezing. It could be a significant "tree/power line" ZR Event as I have seen in the past (Jan 1973)
Next weeks system as of now has a greater threat of severe vs winter issues due to strength of the Low and the much higher dynamics in place. That will depend on the degree of WAA and related CAPE.
 
Not sure I'd call it an Apps cutter, gets shunted east pretty quick and may not be done adjusting. When it comes to CAD, as bad as the NAM can certainly be, it along with other hi-res models will have a much better handle on boundary layer temps/icing potential. Never under estimate the power of CAD
Oh I definitely don't think it's right. I doubt the LP makes above Macon, Georgia at best before it rides around the CAD dome. Problem is you can't trust the surface depiction because it allows warm surface level temps to be further north than reality.
 
NAM rapidly scours the wedge b/c it has Southeast winds at 925mb... RGEM has a stiff winds out of the Northeast at 925mb along the escarpment for the duration of the storm.

I'd be shocked if the NAM is right with its depiction.
The safe bet is to always assume the wedge is going to hold on longer than forecast. We’ve seen too many times over the years
 
GC8uNePWUAAo6y1
 
fram_acc-imp.us_state_nc_va.png

Was still icing and the 3K was likely too dry with the coverage. DP's were quite a bit lower on the 3K also. 5 degrees lower vs the NAM in mby and was holding 31/29 for the duration.
 
1704339140519.png
First initial look at what I'm thinking on precip types. High Country likely starts out with some snow before switching over to ZR. The escarpment, foothills, and western piedmont, northern upstate and mountains of NE Georgia I think have a chance to have several hours of ZR before eventually switching over to Rain on the backend. CAD domes tend to overperform and down here the foothills, areas along highway 25 in Greenville county and north of 85 (Cleveland, Marietta, Travelers Rest, Gowensville, Taylors), Northern Spartanburg County (Greer, Campobello, Landrum, Lyman/Wellford, Boiling Springs, Fingerville, Chesnee), and North and western Cherokee County (Gaffney) tend to overperform. Spartanburg, Greenville, Clemson, NE Georgia, and Piedmont I think have an onset few hours of ice to Rain. Obviously can and probably will change one way or another. Probably won't even look at possible totals until Friday.
 
Back
Top