SimeonNC
Member
Decided to pull the trigger and make the thread, mods feel free to lock it if you feel like it's too soon.
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January 6th-7th Potential Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Mahomeless
Member
Perfect! The family is ready for a 6 hour trip to Banner Elk, just need the NC experts to chime in on whether that's a good choice or not.
SimeonNC
Member
They may end up seeing more sleet than snow or ZR if things trend cold enough, the RGEM gives the northern mountains sleet.
Mahomeless
Member
I figured Boone to Beech would be the only chance for flakes.
Oconeexman
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Gfs not too far off from the Nam saturday
Icon has a couple hours of ZR here
the GFS for the first time brings freezing rain down to northern Charlotte metro
the GFS for the first time brings freezing rain down to northern Charlotte metro
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This may go the other way but if the GFS is already deepening the CAD push….
accu35
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Could there be any severe weather along the gulf coast?
W
WSW
Guest
tennessee storm
Member
Yes sir
Might be interesting here.
Heck the RGEM gives me 2hrs of light zr Sat morning, let's go! Lol Of course it will be a decent memory after 3" of rain falls but whatever
Loganville Winter
Member
How much does what happens tonight affect Saturday and what happens Saturday affect Tuesday? Especially in the borderline areas and Charlotte, Atlanta metros.
NCSNOW
Member
First chance at something other than rain or frost accumulating in 2 years. Im with you
iGRXY
Member
EURO is hell bent on an Apps cutter still before transferring to the Peedee region of SC.
Not sure I'd call it an Apps cutter, gets shunted east pretty quick and may not be done adjusting. When it comes to CAD, as bad as the NAM can certainly be, it along with other hi-res models will have a much better handle on boundary layer temps/icing potential. Never under estimate the power of CAD
gawxnative
Member
Ok first to qualify" I am not a Met, but have some 50 years of tracking weather here in Metro ATL. The system today/tonight will have minimal impact on the system for the 6th -7th. What that will be "riding on" That will be determined by the depth/strength of the CAD/Wedge for this area. A variation of just a 100 or so miles in the placement of the Mid Atlantic High (or it being stronger than progged) or a northward shift in the track of the Low by a little as 50 miles can change mid 30s and rain to 30 and ZR. This will not be a 'ground type" ZR event as ground temps will remain above freezing. It could be a significant "tree/power line" ZR Event as I have seen in the past (Jan 1973)
Next weeks system as of now has a greater threat of severe vs winter issues due to strength of the Low and the much higher dynamics in place. That will depend on the degree of WAA and related CAPE.
severestorm
Member
Euro colder
iGRXY
Member
Oh I definitely don't think it's right. I doubt the LP makes above Macon, Georgia at best before it rides around the CAD dome. Problem is you can't trust the surface depiction because it allows warm surface level temps to be further north than reality.
rburrel2
Member
Seems like both the GFS and NAM are trying to sneak in a burst of snow for the mountains on the front end of this storm.
Never fails. Were trending towards more sleet in the foothills. I hope the trends continue.
rburrel2
Member
NAM rapidly scours the wedge b/c it has Southeast winds at 925mb... RGEM has a stiff winds out of the Northeast at 925mb along the escarpment for the duration of the storm.
I'd be shocked if the NAM is right with its depiction.
I'd be shocked if the NAM is right with its depiction.
The safe bet is to always assume the wedge is going to hold on longer than forecast. We’ve seen too many times over the years
iGRXY
Member
It’s dipping further south ever so slightly every run
SimeonNC
Member
SimeonNC
Member
This is honestly pretty bullish this far out
SimeonNC
Member
Seeing ZR so far east is concerning
iGRXY
Member
3K looks nothing like the NAM. The NAM looks to be eroding the CAD way too fast at the surface and we know how that usually plays out.
Really want to see other hi-res before going with a forecast behind the nam. It can be good at wedges but can be to cold sometimes
31/28 at KJQF with a couple hours of ZR is one of the colder solutions for sure
31/28 at KJQF with a couple hours of ZR is one of the colder solutions for sure
Seems like a cold outlier though wrt to dewpoints
3K looks nothing like the NAM. The NAM looks to be eroding the CAD way too fast at the surface and we know how that usually plays out.
iGRXY
Member
Was still icing and the 3K was likely too dry with the coverage. DP's were quite a bit lower on the 3K also. 5 degrees lower vs the NAM in mby and was holding 31/29 for the duration.
iGRXY
Member
I trust the 3K with the dews vs globals and even its counterpart. That's kind of what the 3K should be best at sniffing out due to it's increased resolution.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Another difference the 3k has the LP in the gulf, 12k has it in south Bama
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
First initial look at what I'm thinking on precip types. High Country likely starts out with some snow before switching over to ZR. The escarpment, foothills, and western piedmont, northern upstate and mountains of NE Georgia I think have a chance to have several hours of ZR before eventually switching over to Rain on the backend. CAD domes tend to overperform and down here the foothills, areas along highway 25 in Greenville county and north of 85 (Cleveland, Marietta, Travelers Rest, Gowensville, Taylors), Northern Spartanburg County (Greer, Campobello, Landrum, Lyman/Wellford, Boiling Springs, Fingerville, Chesnee), and North and western Cherokee County (Gaffney) tend to overperform. Spartanburg, Greenville, Clemson, NE Georgia, and Piedmont I think have an onset few hours of ice to Rain. Obviously can and probably will change one way or another. Probably won't even look at possible totals until Friday.
NCSNOW
Member
Nice inverted Hoarse shoe around me and Packfan on the 0z RDPS. Winning!