rburrel2
Member
Seems like both the GFS and NAM are trying to sneak in a burst of snow for the mountains on the front end of this storm.
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January 6th-7th Potential Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Never fails. Were trending towards more sleet in the foothills. I hope the trends continue.
rburrel2
Member
NAM rapidly scours the wedge b/c it has Southeast winds at 925mb... RGEM has a stiff winds out of the Northeast at 925mb along the escarpment for the duration of the storm.
I'd be shocked if the NAM is right with its depiction.
I'd be shocked if the NAM is right with its depiction.
The safe bet is to always assume the wedge is going to hold on longer than forecast. We’ve seen too many times over the years
iGRXY
Member
It’s dipping further south ever so slightly every run
SimeonNC
Member
SimeonNC
Member
This is honestly pretty bullish this far out
strongwxnc
Member
SimeonNC
Member
Seeing ZR so far east is concerning
iGRXY
Member
3K looks nothing like the NAM. The NAM looks to be eroding the CAD way too fast at the surface and we know how that usually plays out.
Really want to see other hi-res before going with a forecast behind the nam. It can be good at wedges but can be to cold sometimes
31/28 at KJQF with a couple hours of ZR is one of the colder solutions for sure
31/28 at KJQF with a couple hours of ZR is one of the colder solutions for sure
Seems like a cold outlier though wrt to dewpoints
3K looks nothing like the NAM. The NAM looks to be eroding the CAD way too fast at the surface and we know how that usually plays out.
iGRXY
Member
Was still icing and the 3K was likely too dry with the coverage. DP's were quite a bit lower on the 3K also. 5 degrees lower vs the NAM in mby and was holding 31/29 for the duration.
iGRXY
Member
I trust the 3K with the dews vs globals and even its counterpart. That's kind of what the 3K should be best at sniffing out due to it's increased resolution.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Another difference the 3k has the LP in the gulf, 12k has it in south Bama
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
First initial look at what I'm thinking on precip types. High Country likely starts out with some snow before switching over to ZR. The escarpment, foothills, and western piedmont, northern upstate and mountains of NE Georgia I think have a chance to have several hours of ZR before eventually switching over to Rain on the backend. CAD domes tend to overperform and down here the foothills, areas along highway 25 in Greenville county and north of 85 (Cleveland, Marietta, Travelers Rest, Gowensville, Taylors), Northern Spartanburg County (Greer, Campobello, Landrum, Lyman/Wellford, Boiling Springs, Fingerville, Chesnee), and North and western Cherokee County (Gaffney) tend to overperform. Spartanburg, Greenville, Clemson, NE Georgia, and Piedmont I think have an onset few hours of ice to Rain. Obviously can and probably will change one way or another. Probably won't even look at possible totals until Friday.
