January 6th-7th Potential Storm

[BullCityWx]

NAMs a little quicker getting the precip in on Saturday.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

3k NAM coming in colder and extending freezing rain into western triangle area and CLT metro area including Union county

 

[WSW]

 

[Shadow of the Apps]

WSW expanded to include All Rutherford, Polk, and Transylvania counties.

 

[iGRXY]

Areas in yellow predicted to get T-0.1", Orange - 0.1"-0.25", and red - 0.25"-0.4"+ according to GSP.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

RGEM actually just came in colder at 18Z

 

[iGRXY]

GSP appears to be using the CMC, RGEM, and CAM models for footprint and general amounts. FYI the newest RGEM is upping FRAM amounts.

 

[troyc]

Looks like lots of ice here in Roanoke. On the plus side I do have some branches on a tree that need trimming.

 

[Stevo24]

GSP appears to be using the CMC, RGEM, and CAM models for footprint and general amounts. FYI the newest RGEM is upping FRAM amounts.

Phew. Looks like I’m gonna miss out on the Ice.

 

[WSW]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Models really don’t look that impressive for ice, other then the ones known to have a cold bias

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

GSP is upping the totals for western areas.

 

[SNOWMANN]

GSP is upping the totals for western areas.

Sounds about right those are prime upslope areas that will receive the most qpf before warming above freezing. Brevard to Tryon right along the escarpment.

 

[Webberweather53]

Sounds about right those are prime upslope areas that will receive the most qpf before warming above freezing. Brevard to Tryon right along the escarpment.

Saluda is notorious for getting big totals, even in this kind of event

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rather shocked how bullish GSP is the areas outside the foothills, into the Piedmont, considering model guidance

 

[SNOWMANN]

Saluda is notorious for getting big totals, even in this kind of event

Wouldn't be surprised to see storm reports of around a half inch in those neck of the woods. And possibly around mine the South Mountains in Burke County.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Rather shocked how bullish GSP is the areas outside the foothills, into the Piedmont, considering model guidance

There leaning towards the insitu Cad hanging on longer than modeled especially the typical areas 1-40N to right along the escarpment.
Never fails.

 

[SimeonNC]

Rather shocked how bullish GSP is the areas outside the foothills, into the Piedmont, considering model guidance

I trust them tbh

 

[SNOWMANN]

I trust them tbh

I've learned more times than not to trust GSP honestly one of the hardest to forecast in the entire country imo.

 

[SimeonNC]

There leaning towards the insitu Cad hanging on longer than modeled especially the typical areas 1-40N to right along the escarpment.
Never fails.

Yeah I've noticed that the models are really quick to erode the CAD, even the RGEM.

Also, you know more than me but I feel like the HP in Canada makes this more of a hybrid thab in-situ