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January 6th-7th Potential Storm

This is forecasted to be a nada burger in mby. But Ill track for the fun of it, under a winter wx adv. Forecasted to cloud up around 6z tonight. Clear skies as the sun goes down. So will fall of todays forecasted high of 44 down to freezing by 8pm easily. Cloud deck should be rolling in by midnight. That will trigger a 2-3 degrees bounce back up before precip begins, then we wetbulb back down. Always fun to see unfold as models usually are off a degree or 2. sometimes forecast to warm, sometimes to cold.
Regardless / COLD RAIN on tap for Saturday which beats 90 degrees with a dewpoint of 70 any day of the week!
 
Well got down to 24 here this morning, below the forecast. Could impact degree of heating today so something to monitor today/this evening for any potential ZR overnight.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
19.8/17 here this morning..... wasn't expecting it to get that low last night. That will certainly drop those soil temps. It may also play a part in how long we keep the sub-freezing temps tomorrow.
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22.1 here this morning with mega frost, even some frosty tree tops around creeks and swampy areas. I don't have a dog in this potential storm fight, but, I'll be shocked if temps aren't a touch cooler tonight than model forecast and precip doesn't arrive a tick sooner (almost always does) giving a glancing blow to at least western triangle counties.
 
metwannabe said:
22.1 here this morning with mega frost, even some frosty tree tops around creeks and swampy areas. I don't have a dog in this potential storm fight, but, I'll be shocked if temps aren't a touch cooler tonight than model forecast and precip doesn't arrive a tick sooner (almost always does) giving a glancing blow to at least western triangle counties.
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Yeah, I think eventually they may have to add Orange and Durham(mostly for NW Durham) to the advisory.
 
Hrrr has a pretty solid event for areas along the escarpment, if there’s a surprise for higher then forecasted ice, it would be those areas B11D7685-D6F6-41E7-B5F2-F9DE9D1B9586.png
 
Hrw is pretty cold along the escarpment, ZR with temps in the upper 20sC0F975FE-79C4-4C70-B208-79A145F1F004.pngFE5C9FA4-0D49-49A9-A911-DECD772D26AD.png
 
metwannabe said:
Canadians are adjusting to reality I see. Still think NW Durham and NW Granville (just to name a couple of spots locally) still start as a very brief zr before flipping fast but this is escarpment's baby.
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I'd agree with that, especially between 85 and 158. North of 158 may hang on for a bit longer.
 
metwannabe said:
Canadians are adjusting to reality I see. Still think NW Durham and NW Granville (just to name a couple of spots locally) still start as a very brief zr before flipping fast but this is escarpment's baby.

View attachment 140035
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These models suck for these marginal events. Often way to cold time and time again. Decent during deep cold CAD events though. But kinda figured there were out to lunch, hence why I didn’t share the RGEM
 
Interesting from FFC. Pretty bullish for Dahlonega/ Cleveland area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1224 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

GAZ006>009-014>016-060200-
/O.CON.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.240106T0400Z-240106T1300Z/
Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-
Including the cities of Dahlonega and Cleveland
1224 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of
around one-tenth of an inch, with ice accumulations of up to
two- tenths of an inch possible in the highest elevations of
far northeast Georgia. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Georgia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.
 
41 in Asheville. up from 22 this morning with the sun out. Cloud cover tonight should limit temps from going down fast. Thinking I'm out of the game for anything wintry. Hopefully everyone in the CAD areas gets a nice storm and doesn't loose power.
 
1704480170761.png
Updated map. I'm expecting around a tenth of inch or less in mby. The sweet spot is still going to be from Brevard to Hendersonville, Saluda, and Chimney Rock. The far western foothills and closest to the escarpment get 0.25"+. Further east drops off considerably. 85 corridor probably gets a trace to maybe 5 hundredths of an inch at most.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 140068
Updated map. I'm expecting around a tenth of inch or less in mby. The sweet spot is still going to be from Brevard to Hendersonville, Saluda, and Chimney Rock. The far western foothills and closest to the escarpment get 0.25"+. Further east drops off considerably. 85 corridor probably gets a trace to maybe 5 hundredths of an inch at most.
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highly doubt any ZR makes it into Spartanburg county other then the extreme far northern fringes, even the colder models like the nam don’t show ZR down there anymore
 
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