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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

RollTide18 said:
Three days is a lot of time for even a lot more areas west to get in the game.

Obviously I'm wishcasting.
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There is like a 5 percent chance for anything from Atlanta to the west and that’s being nice . We had our storm earlier this month . This clearly favors the eastern parts of the Carolinas . We need to pull for those members . Lots of wishcasting going on for parts of Georgia to the west .....
 
Your right. I just wish our previous storm was a bigger storm in Atlanta like past storms. If that was the cast I would be more readily rooting for them. We need a snow bomb in Atlanta like the 82 Snow jam or something haha. Minus the traffic jams.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Your right. I just wish our previous storm was a bigger storm in Atlanta like past storms. If that was the cast I would be more readily rooting for them. We need a snow bomb in Atlanta like the 82 Snow jam or something haha. Minus the traffic jams.
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??? That’s was Atlanta’s biggest storm in a long time
 
Clayton Reid said:
Not within the city. It's always mostly north of the city not around where I live or just south of the city or airport.
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Clayton Reid said:
Your right. I just wish our previous storm was a bigger storm in Atlanta like past storms. If that was the cast I would be more readily rooting for them. We need a snow bomb in Atlanta like the 82 Snow jam or something haha. Minus the traffic jams.
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Do you think this will also be a Eastern Carolina to SE VA storm possibly
?
 
All of these constant IMBY questions are reaching the level of being supremely annoying. There's plenty of websites out there to look at free maps that will depict whether or not your area is plausible to receive frozen precipitation. The key at this point in time is to be looking for trends and not focusing on specific amounts.
 
Storm5 said:
There is like a 5 percent chance for anything from Atlanta to the west and that’s being nice . We had our storm earlier this month . This clearly favors the eastern parts of the Carolinas . We need to pull for those members . Lots of wishcasting going on for parts of Georgia to the west .....
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Yeah, It's time for the Carolias to get something after that disappointment you guys got last storm. Hopefully this is your storm! I can't see this becoming a N GA or Alabama system. I can see South GA and Central GA at best, and maybe the E halves of the Carolinas. I'm fine missing out on this storm unless it's by 5 miles.
 
Storm5 said:
There is like a 5 percent chance for anything from Atlanta to the west and that’s being nice . We had our storm earlier this month . This clearly favors the eastern parts of the Carolinas . We need to pull for those members . Lots of wishcasting going on for parts of Georgia to the west .....
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5% chance is still a chance. Yes it favors the Carolinas but stranger things have happened.
 
Storm5 said:
There is like a 5 percent chance for anything from Atlanta to the west and that’s being nice . We had our storm earlier this month . This clearly favors the eastern parts of the Carolinas . We need to pull for those members . Lots of wishcasting going on for parts of Georgia to the west .....
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We, at least may of us, did not get anything earlier this month:oops:
 
1300m said:
This is exactly what I was saying earlier. At H5 is looked better than at the surface.
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Both the EURO and GFS should have looked better at the surface. GFS has another SLP quite a bit of the low that pops off in the Bahamas. Not sure if it's convective feedback or not, but the thermal gradient one would think should be closer to the Wall of the Gulf Stream.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Some points to ponder going forward....

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So are you saying if the H5 look verifies, it may actually be under doing precipitation ando moisture and that's why we didn't see much on the maps?
Webberweather53 said:
Some points to ponder going forward....

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So you're saying the EURO maybe underdoing precipitation and moisture levels due to issues it has if this look at H5 verifies?
 
If it phases sooner we'll see more moisture further west but it's going to take a lot to make this more than a Carolinas and maybe east Georgia event. Considering it's a phase situation the west trend likely isn't done but we're less than a week away.
 
Brett said:
So what is the most snow anyone here has had??
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(Feel free to move this to banter) I've received 8 inches of snow four times in my life here in Fayetteville, once in the Carolina crusher of January 2000 which i apparently have absolutely no recollection of (since I was only 4 years old & really had little-no interest in studying meteorology or paying attention to the weather at the time). January 2002 which I can vaguely remember sledding down a monstrous dirt mound that was the beginning of several new subdivisions going up near my place.

Jan 2-3 2002 NC Snowmap.png


February 2004 (was a surprise storm around here, weren't expecting much, areas just to my south had nearly a foot-14" at point but it flipped to rain down there and severely cut into their totals, it changed over to sleet where I was but we avoided going over to all liquid).
February 26-27 2004 NC Snowmap.gif

The other occasion from 2 separate storms that both brought about 4" of snow, unexpectedly to Fayetteville and there was 8" on the ground momentarily before it changed over to sleet on the 12th.
Feb 11 2014 NC snowstorm.gif
NC snowstorm Feb 12-13 2014.gif

I haven't found a way to get over the 8" hurdle, I would be absolutely thrilled if I ever saw anything more here in either Raleigh or Fayetteville... Essentially every big dog I've seen has come virtually out of nowhere, being in the bullseye several days out rarely works
 
Ideally, where would we want the phasing to occur to bring the QPF on a more Westward traction? I think Chris said phasing on the Euro happened at 90hr.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Ideally, where would we want the phasing to occur to bring the QPF on a more Westward traction? I think Chris said phasing on the Euro happened at 90hr.
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Basically I think delta, 1300m and I are all surprised the SFC low was as far as it was from the 500mb low. The look should have had more moisture and a closer SFC low so in essence it should have had more QPF back inland a little more...maybe not as dramatic as the UKMET but still you get the idda.
 
It would be awfully nice if this thing could end up taking the Jan 2000 track, or maybe just 20-30 northwest of that. That would make everyone in SC and NC who missed out on the first storm very happy.
 
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