DadOfJax
Member
LOL...Sickening here in AL.
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
raine1212
Member
NWS dropped us to 20% now, I will take the flurries
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It almost looks like it is for the virga moving from AL to GA on radar too.
Pilotwx
Member
Yes it is , but i think the low may pop in the gulf and go negative there. Its really close.
whatalife
Moderator
If I trusted the SREF I’d go all in. Another increase for the KCAE area 
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Means the NAM is about to come in, with even more. IMO, you can kinda trust the nam (maybe have to cut qpf by a 1/4 in the midlands) (coast is closer to 1/2)... its thermal structure is good and qpf hasn't been horrible around here.If I trusted the SREF I’d go all in. Another increase for the KCAE area
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WXinCanton
Member
God luck folks! I hope y'all get clobbered like I did couple weeks ago
Okay KCAE friends & @whatalife , new SREF went from around 70% to 75%. Highest member has over 14 inches with a mean of 2.81 !
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The event is practically about to begin, it's maddening we have this much spread but not a huge surprise considering all the diabatic heating involved
Bryce Shelton
Member
Bring it on!... I at least want 1" down here near Orangeburg. LOL
packfan98
Moderator
JB just tweeted about the low forming close to Cape Canaveral, FL. Looks to actually be over land to me.
JB just tweeted about the low forming close to Cape Canaveral, FL. Looks to actually be over land to me.
Right around that "31" sticking out; in theory should be the area.
JtSmarts
Member
You should be golden in your area, you guys are actually under a WSW right? I'm just scared about people not having much warning just in case this does turn into a bigger deal. I've tried to warn my family and friends that this is a VERY complex forecast and situation.
SREF for KCAE is split between 0-2.5 inches and 3.6- 7 inches. I'm trying to ignore the lone 14 inch one skewing the mean.
Still the idea is West down here from various modeling... This can only mean good things for NC also.
Still the idea is West down here from various modeling... This can only mean good things for NC also.
Brett
Member
sref here have a mean of 9" and go up to 25" here
Bryce Shelton
Member
Yep, we are under a warning.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's definitely more precipitation than forecast over eastern GA on the western side of the precipitation shield than what the RAP was willing to admit
Bryce Shelton
Member
Isn't time to start looking at radar more than the models?
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Warm nose seems pretty potent like the NAM was hinting.