Storm5
Member
Good luck to our eastern friends today !!!
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Not quite negative yet. But neutral, likely. Which leads to a quicker negative idea when the Northern Stream's wave bursts down into it, which leads to a low closer to the coast.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
From KGSP. Definitely feeling pretty good about snow making it deep into the piedmont given this
"Otherwise, today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther inland than featured in the operational models, possibly across a good chunk of our forecat area."
"Otherwise, today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther inland than featured in the operational models, possibly across a good chunk of our forecat area."
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Would that be the same idea for the Triangle area, too?
I beat you to that Eric. Haha. The Baroclinic Leaf has made it's presence on satellite a bit earlier tonight.
It may be radar hallucinations, but that western edge is moving on NNE atleast!
whatalife
Moderator
Yeah. I agree. I am cautiously optimistic. But we’ll see.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
HRRR model has ticked back East some the last two runs... but who knows at this point. Models probably don't matter to much at this point anymore.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, for areas west of I-95 in NC it's a concern
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Concern? Depends on how you look at it.
So I am noticing the tilt and moisture really starting to crank out of the Gulf especially. Looks like it's going to converge on the Eastern Midlands & Coast. (along with further inland) Ruh roh. This is going to be a hard forecast day.
packfan98
Moderator
WxSouth
59 mins ·
Batton down the hatches and hold on tight along the East Coast--This thing is about to enter full Beast Mode and is going to max out its energy all along the East Coast in rare fashion from Florida to Canada, slamming the Entire Eastern Seaboard of America, in a nearly once in a lifetime setup.
All ingredients are now coming together rapidly with tremendous energy aloft, in the warm waters and incredible barocliinic thermal boundary, with a tremendous negative tilt southern trough about to fully phase in a very unusual spot in the Southeast. The fully phased storm will bomb out as it rides north, up the entire east Coast, hugging the Coast and producing Blizzard Conditions from North Carolina to Maine as time goes by. Heavy snow and ice totals all the way to Florida and Georgia with the biggest snow and ice drop in Georgia to Florida in Decades.
The system is pulling further west, having an earlier head start than forecast in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and will rapidly intensify and expand through the eastern halves of the Carolinas and Virginia and now places more areas of the Piedmont in snow totals as well. But the blizzard portion should reside from eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and up the Eastern Seaboard late tonight and Thursday, with up to a foot of windswept snow, and possibly thundersnow and thundersleet episodes very near the immediate east coast at times, with increasing winds.
If your area was expected to be on the western edge of the storm, pay close attention now and some forecasts have already been changed, many more are likely to be changed and includes some major metros like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and DC. This is a dynamite setup and the fuse has been lit, now it's wait and see.
Following the storm, more intense cold comes well south, with below zero Wind Chills again as far south as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.
59 mins ·
Batton down the hatches and hold on tight along the East Coast--This thing is about to enter full Beast Mode and is going to max out its energy all along the East Coast in rare fashion from Florida to Canada, slamming the Entire Eastern Seaboard of America, in a nearly once in a lifetime setup.
All ingredients are now coming together rapidly with tremendous energy aloft, in the warm waters and incredible barocliinic thermal boundary, with a tremendous negative tilt southern trough about to fully phase in a very unusual spot in the Southeast. The fully phased storm will bomb out as it rides north, up the entire east Coast, hugging the Coast and producing Blizzard Conditions from North Carolina to Maine as time goes by. Heavy snow and ice totals all the way to Florida and Georgia with the biggest snow and ice drop in Georgia to Florida in Decades.
The system is pulling further west, having an earlier head start than forecast in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and will rapidly intensify and expand through the eastern halves of the Carolinas and Virginia and now places more areas of the Piedmont in snow totals as well. But the blizzard portion should reside from eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and up the Eastern Seaboard late tonight and Thursday, with up to a foot of windswept snow, and possibly thundersnow and thundersleet episodes very near the immediate east coast at times, with increasing winds.
If your area was expected to be on the western edge of the storm, pay close attention now and some forecasts have already been changed, many more are likely to be changed and includes some major metros like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and DC. This is a dynamite setup and the fuse has been lit, now it's wait and see.
Following the storm, more intense cold comes well south, with below zero Wind Chills again as far south as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.
I'm waiving at the snow in SGA. Lol good luck everyone
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Concern here was meant to mean pertaining to rather than unfavorable, in fact this is great news, we need the s/w to tilt sooner
Here is the current 500mb analysis... the low should pop and start cranking in the yellow area.. which is on the Western side of any guidance.. wtf... this causing a kink in forecasts... look at the pretty angle of the trof btw!!!
Pilotwx
Member
Models are not catching on , even the NWS offices know that. The energy dropping in the back side should cause the thing to go crazy. Will have to see how soon it taps gulf as it goes negative. But, could Go negative before it gets to FLA Panhandle
RollTide18
Member
The gulf is already tapped based on radar.
Clayton Reid
Member
Same here in ATL haha. Maybe next time Chris