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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
ruh roh. if we aren't neutral tilt, we are very close to it based on wv imagery right at the ms/al border.

that leaf set up earlier could throw a major kink into some forecats, further downstream into GA & SC.
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What would that mean for the Midlands Shawn?
 
To go with my response above. the "baroclinic leaf" is the idea of a low developing and saturation occurs (clouds). In other words, the neutral/potential negative tilt happening quite a bit sooner than later means moisture infiltrates the mid levels faster, and further west.

We have no idea yet, tbh.
 
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The short wave (lead) has dipped a little more aggressively into the Gulf of Mexico and the secondary (chaser) wave is currently on top of it. The next 3-6 hours are very important in regards to interaction.

In other words, lead wave deeper and slower than some modeling and chaser wave on it.
 
I’m in B’ham now traveling West, and I can see the clouds building toward the MS line...Rooting for you people East...This one definitely has some surprises in store


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Shawn said:
The short wave (lead) has dipped a little more aggressively into the Gulf of Mexico and the secondary (chaser) wave is currently on top of it. The next 3-6 hours are very important in regards to interaction.

In other words, lead wave deeper and slower than some modeling and chaser wave on it.
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Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings in effect Southern Midlands as of 5 minutes ago from KCAE...
 
Stormsfury said:
Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings in effect Southern Midlands as of 5 minutes ago from KCAE...
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I hope you and Shawn get clobbered and then slingshot it up here instead of ots we greatly appreciate it.

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whatalife said:
HAHA! KCAE is about to look stupid. If we are already negatively titled that should bode well for us in the central midlands.


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I just asked KATL on their twitter what model they were running b/c it showed a drastic shift into the area of KCAE/Lexington with snowfall (idk about accumulation) and they said it was the HRRR. Their maps are much better than what we have in regards to sharp cutoffs.

I'm not all in for here, but I have to admit, the chance is increasing for you and I's back yard for seeing it fall, at least.
 
Dear nit Boston has a blizzard warming up with close to a foot expected . At least some things we can always count on
 
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