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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Xtreme Weather said:
Interesting no model sniffing out the current precip breaking out back over Louisiana, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma that I can find anyway. But beginning to get some ground truth though through mPing now and over last hour. Hi res show some snow showers across central Alabama tomorrow but again nothing currently

Interesting need to watch and see if we can bump up dew points just a tick then parts of AL andcYa could get a little surprise here... Not a trend just an observation ATM

47_BFEC57-90_EA-4_BCC-9983-0_CED0_EEE7_A7_E.png
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Looks like it might be a little sharper trough axis, things are about to get interesting I think....
500mb.gif
 
Xtreme Weather said:
We just need to tap a little more Atlantic moisture as the short wave moves through our area as the low pressure starts to develop. I'm not asking for too much am I LoL
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Nah you need gulf moisture. The Atlantic is too far for you to really benefit from it. If the trough dug in maybe another 200-300 miles, it would have been able to tap more moisture for the gulf states.
 
I was about to post the same thing, NAM initialize stronger in lead and chaser wave vs 18z run. less positive tilt as well
 
WxSouth still going with the NAM and saying even though the globals went west they are most likely way too low on the amount of moisture.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
00z NAM initialized stronger and less positive tilt

18z
namconus_z500_vort_us_7.png

00z
namconus_z500_vort_us_1.png
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Doesn't look to dissimilar to what the mesoanalysis is currently showing... good start hopefully. As xtreme pointed out it's already generating enough lift to squeeze out some light precip that no model picked up on
 
NAM is def stronger with both waves at hr 3 and that chaser is booking in South
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Nah you need gulf moisture. The Atlantic is too far for you to really benefit from it. If the trough dug in maybe another 200-300 miles, it would have been able to tap more moisture for the gulf states.
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Ideally yes but the low pressure develops on the Atlantic side so we need as much as possible "thrown back" into NW FL and Georgia... Gulf can't help us in this case
 
Weaker and will go neutral tilt later...not what we want but it may not be a big deal on the surface


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