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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Sorry, Phil, but at least you can live with a quarter inch of zr. I wonder, if that occurs, when the last time you saw a quarter inch of zr down there?
 
GaWx said:
For Phil from JAX!!:

FLZ036-030915-
ALACHUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT,
AND NEWNANS LAKE
621 PM EST TUE JAN 2 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 22 TO 27.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 22 TO 27.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 14 TO 19.
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Larry,
Thanks!
Now, can I trade that for white fluff ... :eek:
Oh, I know, beggars can't be ... ;)
Best, My Man!
Phil
PS - And thanks for thinking of us down here!
 
Would be awesome if a shield of precip developed off the coast of the panhandle of FL and rode into GA straight into the Midlands like the 2000 storm. At this point, I'm hoping for a miracle here in Columbia. I guess there aint nothing wrong with that.
 
pcbjr said:
Never.
:confused:
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Well, technically, it's a half inch, but the rain in between should wash off the first round. Hope your budding tree is ready, lol. And cover any favorite plants. Zr will burn them, although they spray zr on fruit trees to save them, so who knows, lol. T
 
"At this point, I'm hoping for a miracle here in Columbia". Its all we've got. Wondering if radar returns will look ominous by early AM
 
Robert West said:
Would be awesome if a shield of precip developed off the coast of the panhandle of FL and rode into GA straight into the Midlands like the 2000 storm. At this point, I'm hoping for a miracle here in Columbia. I guess there aint nothing wrong with that.
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it's just not our storm this time my friend
 
inmsirse.gif;-1
 
metwannabe said:
Thanks for your input, I think you are in a great spot actually, heck one time earlier today I was concerned about the continuing NW trend which would certainly have given you mixing issues but that seems to have halted for now... my job has me in Greenville these days and I have to go no matter what so hopefully you can jackpot and I can share in it
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I have a 4x4 truck these days, no longer rocking the Accord on snow chases and have limited excuses for not making it to work absent high water. Climo would paint the heaviest axis from Edgecombe / Wilson counties off towards the north-east, whereas the global are more along a Washington to Plymouth line. The difference could just be that slight NW correction we see inside 24hrs and with verification. In my ~15 years here in ENC, I have never seen a low like this going to some of the min SLPs guidance is spitting out and keeping us dominant SN. Convection is either going to rob, or even some of these semi-official higher outputs are going to come in low.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Each run the HRRR develops those flurries more and more and keeps it around longer each time. I think Birmingham should see a few flakes based off of that if the precip develops.
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Interesting no model sniffing out the current precip breaking out back over Louisiana, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma that I can find anyway. But beginning to get some ground truth though through mPing now and over last hour. Hi res show some snow showers across central Alabama tomorrow but again nothing currently

Interesting need to watch and see if we can bump up dew points just a tick then parts of AL andcYa could get a little surprise here... Not a trend just an observation ATM

47_BFEC57-90_EA-4_BCC-9983-0_CED0_EEE7_A7_E.png
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Cool Graphic on Wright-Weather on the simulated radar for the next 54 hours based on the 18z 3km NAM.
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In that graphic, you can see the pivot between about 36 and 40hrs, that would jackpot RWI to ORF verbatim. PGV would be looking just to the NNW as we normally do.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Interesting no model sniffing out the current precip breaking out back over Louisiana, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma that I can find anyway. But beginning to get some ground truth though through mPing now and over last hour. Hi res show some snow showers across central Alabama tomorrow but again nothing currently

Interesting need to watch and see if we can bump up dew points just a tick then parts of AL andcYa could get a little surprise here... Not a trend just an observation ATM

47_BFEC57-90_EA-4_BCC-9983-0_CED0_EEE7_A7_E.png
Click to expand...
Will it fall apart when it reaches Atlanta?
 
WeatherNC said:
I have a 4x4 truck these days, no longer rocking the Accord on snow chases and have limited excuses for not making it to work absent high water. Climo would paint the heaviest axis from Edgecombe / Wilson counties off towards the north-east, whereas the global are more along a Washington to Plymouth line. The difference could just be that slight NW correction we see inside 24hrs and with verification. In my ~15 years here in ENC, I have never seen a low like this going to some of the min SLPs guidance is spitting out and keeping us dominant SN. Convection is either going to rob, or even some of these semi-official higher outputs are going to come in low.
Click to expand...

This already started today with every model run at least as far as slp placement is concerned... this is a dynamic situation and going to be interesting to how it all verifies. Will the low be that close to the coast, will precip shield be more expansive, is convection robbing the moisture or are models not handling the convection properly (looks more like a freaking TC on the hi-res models). Who knows, I do know I like the look of the pivot on the graphic lovinggulflows shared, that's the glory hour right there
 
30.0 here with a wetbulb of only 24! After looking at some more data, including 850 dewpoints that are currently -39C per the 18Z GFS and whose wetbulbs never rise above -2C, I really wouldn't be shocked if practically all of our precip falls as snow. Related to this and considering NE to N winds cold advection with with zero Atlantic modifying influence, I think temperatures are going to be significantly colder late tonight and tomorrow than what KCHS is forecasting. They're going with a low tonight of high 20s and a high tomorrow of low 30s. I think we're liable to see mid 20's later tonight and a struggle to even get out of the 20's tomorrow.
 
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