MichaelJ
Member
Good luck to folks in the eastern parts of our area but the amount of IMBY posts are really increasing!
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
I would really look at the 18z rgem it splits the difference and seems like a viable solution.
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Still having issues finding out where to place the low pressure on various modeling. Jumping all around with the various vorticity off the SE coast. Precip shield about the same in SE GA regardless of placement of the "L"
Yes it's one if the reasons I've stayed optimistic about getting more snow than what the globals show. How many times have we been in a jackpot at even 24 hrs only to end up 50 miles in the warm nose. If we were to shift the gfs and euro 50 miles NW we have a respectable snowfall
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Makes me wonder if the 3k NAM is the one that is best at resolving convection, then what would make it is off in this case if it is off?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
PennyForYoutThoughts
Member
Detailed forecast here in Pensacola calling for chance of flurries tonight after 2 am, then another chance Round 7 am wed morning.
CentralGAColdFront
Member
I've literally been on the edge of virtually every single model that's been out there tonight. The NWS is calling for around an inch here, but I have my doubts that anything will fall from the sky and places to my SE are going to get obliterated. The new snow shield in the entire region resides over the area just SE of Macon, GA.
LetItSnow
Member
quite the ice storm potential in a narrow stripe; some folks way down there could get quite an unpleasant surprise.
sigwx
Member
Thanks for posting l am 15 miles south of the red dotYeah, not everything.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Like SD said, the heaviest precip usually ends up more NW than the globals show, so I feel good with that and with what the NAM keeps showing, and with the globals shifting west today.Doesn't look too far off from what is likely; maybe a little more around SE GA, Coastal SC, OBX:
18z GEFS Precipitation Mean:
LovingGulfLows
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I don't think a widespread 1-3 inches in the Columbia area is out of the question with more to the SE and less to the NW.
Where the convergence zone at the 850mb level sets up is where the heaviest snows will fall. Typically where 850s are between -3C and -5C are is where the heaviest snow axis is. It's going to depend heavily on where the 850mb low tracks. You want to be about 150-200 miles northwest of the 850 mb low. Any closer and you're probably getting sleet or freezing rain from too much warm air getting into the lower/mid-levels and too far and drier/colder air is limiting lift.
So yeah, pay a lot of attention to where the winds circulate at the 850mb level tomorrow along with the general movement of the center of circulation. That will determine where people get crushed by this thing.
Where the convergence zone at the 850mb level sets up is where the heaviest snows will fall. Typically where 850s are between -3C and -5C are is where the heaviest snow axis is. It's going to depend heavily on where the 850mb low tracks. You want to be about 150-200 miles northwest of the 850 mb low. Any closer and you're probably getting sleet or freezing rain from too much warm air getting into the lower/mid-levels and too far and drier/colder air is limiting lift.
So yeah, pay a lot of attention to where the winds circulate at the 850mb level tomorrow along with the general movement of the center of circulation. That will determine where people get crushed by this thing.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Fishel actually was completely honest on air just now and said he doesn't know which way to lean. He thinks it's going to come down to watching satellite imagery as it develops and go from there. He doesn't trust any specific model right now. He's usually the first to tell you that it ain't happening, so it see him waiver is different
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Nice to hear he's being honest instead of just trying to say he nailed the forecast. Sounds like Jan 2000 with them having to forecast and make changes as the storm started to unfold. Except then everyone said beforehand nothing would happen until it started to unfold.
To go with his statement here is a interview with him about the Jan 2000 snow: http://www.wral.com/weather/story/6871964/
Quote from it:
EPS qpf SAV
0Z : 0.25"
12Z; 0.50"
GEFS qpf SAV:
0Z: 0.25'
6Z: 0.30"
12Z: 0.55"
18Z: 0.65"
GEPS:
0Z: 0.45"
12Z: 0.50"
Has the slow but steady NW qpf trend ceased? If not, the 0.75" qpf line is right on our doorstep!
0Z : 0.25"
12Z; 0.50"
GEFS qpf SAV:
0Z: 0.25'
6Z: 0.30"
12Z: 0.55"
18Z: 0.65"
GEPS:
0Z: 0.45"
12Z: 0.50"
Has the slow but steady NW qpf trend ceased? If not, the 0.75" qpf line is right on our doorstep!
dsaur
Member
The HRR throwing some snow in runners away from the storm, is interesting, in lieu of the jumping low, lol. I wouldn't mind a flurry patch going by
This probably belongs in banter but just for fun the new Canadian HRDPS that was just added the other day on TT (it only covers the northern areas you see so please don't ask about other areas) but fun to look at and a good test run for it in our area.
