Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[DadOfJax]

If this keeps shifting west could Atlanta Ga be in play for a little snow?

Not at all.

 

[Mitch West]

For those of y'all that are westward (including me), the only key to really look for is if the waves can interact over eastern Arkansas and west Tennessee. If they do I think we're in. It sure won't be like what the NAM was depicting though, it'll be a light event.

As it stands now, you almost can say we have a somewhat light event on our hands

 

[whatalife]

Will be interesting to see if the 18z NAM comes further NW with the precipitation shield. With this much movement west on the global models I would not be surprised.


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[packfan98]

Will be interesting to see if the 18z NAM comes further NW with the precipitation shield.


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I think there's a shot to get one more shift of about 50 miles with the precip shield. I don't think that the precip output has caught up to the big jump NW with the low that happened with the 12z runs.

 

[Brick Tamland]

 

[Avalanche]

Really had hoped this would be a stronger system than that

 

[Sandbar]

I wouldn't get to caught up in what local mets are putting out. Remember they have a responsibility to get it right not jump on a bandwagon. The EURO just has made a move towards the hi res models. It's hard to argue with Webber's map with this being so similar to Jan. 2000 but Alan Huffman has been doing this a long time as well as other local mets.....so has Greg Fishel. It's one of those scenarios that isn't a slam dunk but COULD be within the next 24 hours

 

[SD]

That's quite a bomb on the euro

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[Brick Tamland]

We are literally one baby step away from January 2000 2.0, just a very modest increase in tilting of the s/w over GA and expansion of the precip shield over FL and southern GA and it will be virtually a carbon copy...
View attachment 2580

ERA-20C 0z January 25 2000 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind
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I wonder if other mets just aren't seeing this, or if they just refuse to think it could happen again.

 

[packfan98]

The SREF's went down for many areas. Let's see if the Nam backs off in a little bit.

 

[Mitch West]

The SREF's went down for many areas. Let's see if the Nam backs off in a little bit.

Wow, not expecting that. I was sure they were going to go up.

 

[Mitch West]

SREF models increased here in CAE from just over a inch to 2.5. But a 15 inch model is warping them a bit. Not sure what the heck the NAM is about to do.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The SREF is a horrible model, shouldn’t be taken seriously one way or another

 

[Mitch West]

The SREF is a horrible model, shouldn’t be taken seriously one way or another

Yes, we know... but it's a good indication usually on what the NAM is about to do.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yes, we know... but it's a good indication usually on what the NAM is about to do.

Not really, it’s usually on its own

 

[$alt]

I can say that if the SREF ticks up, the NAM ticks up for the area in question 90% of the time.

 

[Spurs up]

shawn think we can muster up a flurry or two?

 

[PennyForYoutThoughts]

 

[Mitch West]

I can say that if the SREF ticks up, the NAM ticks up for the area in question 90% of the time.

Thank you.. that's what I thought.

 

[PennyForYoutThoughts]

That moisture in the gulf now trying to move inland over NW Fla . Tough with so much dry air though on the Hrrr model above.