Do you have the 12z run at the same frame to compare it too by chance?Thought it was going east....umm no
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Winter storm warning for Tallahassee area now. Was just outside advisory area this morning...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18Z nam gets a nice band as far west as CLT at hour 29
That is just amazing. Unreal.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
That's amazing.
Terrible run for central NC.
Scratch that next couple frames less precip west...
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South AL Wx
Member
Most (if not all) of the precip showing up on the NAM composite reflectivity map over Alabama and western Georgia would be virga. 3-hour QPF only has a very small area of QPF in east Alabama at hour 21:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, the low goes OTS and is way east. However, there are some convective snow showers in S GA into SC on the 3KM NAM.
packfan98
Moderator
Bad run for RDU
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Here we go with the back and forth. Euro and the globals come west, NAM finally goes east. Too funny.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like Columbia SC does better than RDU this run. Wow things just got weird.
RollTide18
Member
A lot of that is not reaching the ground, but I think people misunderstand me. I'm just looking out for flurries, if there are few areas where the column is saturated then, yes it's not out the realm of possibility to see flurries, again, not saying we're getting a snowstorm here.
The SREF reflected exactly what the NAM ended up ultimately showing. The SREF increased totals for SC and parts of GA and decreased them for NC and that's exactly what the NAM did.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The NAM actually trended east last night too.
Looks like the SREF got this prediction right...about the NAM going the wrong way. This reminds me of the old Nam, what I've been afraid to see. We get close to game time, and it being the best model for us (snow-wise) starts moving away.
So we have a stronger lp just offshore but less expansive precip... Ok. 12z and 18z
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Nam0806
Member
With the most recent model runs, I'm about to throw in the towel for the Greensboro area. I'll give it one more model suite before doing so. I don't think it's ever been in the cards for us, but I'll give it more set of model runs (0z) before giving up.
Flurry
Member
When can we "Nowcast"? 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Seems wonky.So we have a stronger lp just offshore but less expansive precip... Ok. 12z and 18z
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