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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Major kudos to the NAM and ICON, both of which have had for 3+ days a NNE movement of the surface low from the Grand Bahama Island vicinity and consequently more impact on land while almost all others had a NE movement and less impact on land. Now, you can see that all of the other models have capitulated to the ICON and NAM and have that NNE movement.

Note the continued NW trend of the heavier qpf. Now all of the globals including ensemble means except the GFS operational have around 0.50" of qpf here (I fully expect the GFS to reach 0.50" shortly; 12Z GEFS already has it) and I think that will increase further based on clearcut NW trends continuing. The 0.75" qpf is coming here imo as it is only barely offshore now. Ultimately, I really think the 1" qpf line will make it here.

Based on the above, it is now almost a certainty that this will be an historic storm for the area from N FL through SE GA through S SC. I still think that ZR will be limited in CHS-SAV corridor because I think the atmosphere aloft is too cold. So, for my area, I'm thinking it will start as either IP or SN and then transition to all SN if it isn't snow from the start. **IF** most of this ends up as SN, the chances of this ending up as the largest wintry accumulation since the first half of the 1800s for this area becomes quite likely (yes, you read that right)!!! The key will be what % ends up being snow assuming I'm right about qpf.
 
Move this to banter if needed, but I've got a question! I've gotta work tomorrow, at 2 different facilities, one in soperton Ga, the other in Lyons GA, roughly 25 miles apart... I'm trying to plan my day, do we have a ballpark time that the moisture will be moving into the area, and when changeover will occur? Thanks for any info, I'm just trying to be close to home in case the roads get bad!!
 
GaWx said:
Major kudos to the NAM and ICON, both of which have had for 3+ days a NNE movement of the surface low from the Grand Bahama Island vicinity and consequently more impact on land while almost all others had a NE movement and less impact on land. Now, you can see that all of the other models have capitulated to the ICON and NAM and have that NNE movement.

Note the continued NW trend of the heavier qpf. Now all of the globals including ensemble means except the GFS operational have around 0.50" of qpf here (I fully expect the GFS to reach 0.50" shortly; 12Z GEFS already has it) and I think that will increase further based on clearcut NW trends continuing. The 0.75" qpf is coming here imo as it is only barely offshore now. Ultimately, I really think the 1" qpf line will make it here.

Based on the above, it is now almost a certainty that this will be an historic storm for the area from N FL through SE GA through S SC. I still think that ZR will be limited in CHS-SAV corridor because I think the atmosphere aloft is too cold. So, for my area, I'm thinking it will start as either IP or SN and then transition to all SN if it isn't snow from the start. **IF** most of this ends up as SN, the chances of this ending up as the largest wintry accumulation since the first half of the 1800s for this area becomes quite likely (yes, you read that right)!!! The key will be what % ends up being snow assuming I'm right about qpf.
Click to expand...

This is clearly looking like the most significant winter storm down there in a long time.

I strongly feel the SC coastal plain right now has a legit 3"-6" threat. More into E NC and my best guesstimate easily says 2"-4" in SAV.
 
What could have been.. if that lead wave (which is stronger than we originally thought it would be) wasn't being kicked out by the Northern Stream wave. More separation would have put more in play.

We originally wanted the total phase when the lead wave was so weak/strung out. :(
 
Slp pops exact same location as 12z, not too many changes yet... lead wave might be a tick stronger

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*Do Not Say It

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Shawn said:
What could have been.. if that lead wave (which is stronger than we originally thought it would be) wasn't being kicked out by the Northern Stream wave. More separation would have put more in play.

We originally wanted the total phase when the lead wave was so weak/strung out. :(
Click to expand...
booooooooo
 
Why does the pivotal weather site show so much more precip further W than Tropical tidbits? and which is more reliable?
 
Has that double barrel low look off Fl, then a 3rd possible lp area of Ga/Fl, complicated system... dang

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Don't look as great as the 12z run. The last 4 days have been the same, great morning runs and bad afternoon to 00z runs lol
 
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