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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Rain Cold said:
Thanks for the good explanation. We really oughtta see a convergence in the guidance starting at 12z, I would think. If the NAM and RGEM step toward the globals, it’s going to be tough to expect appreciable snow here, barring a last minute miracle.
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Agreed and if the rgem was not on board with The NAM I'd be concerned that the nam is about to cave to the globals but I don't think so, we shall see shortly.

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Rain Cold said:
I posted this on the other board as a response to a similar post of yours. In that situation, the issue was warming aloft as opposed to a lack of precipitation making it to us. I don’t know if that matters, but it is a significant difference between the two examples.
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Webb said it better. But you can look at the 700mb winds on the globals vs the mesoscale and see they are clearly differing in that level thus you get an appreciable snow vs nothing. The 6z gfs for example pins a 700mb convergence axis right to the coast and the kills and inland moisture transport. The mesoscales set this boundary up just west of us1 with much more inland precip. Climo says the mesoscale idea is correct to me

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Tracking winter storms and driving are hazardous to one's Health, with that said just glancing, when I'm stopped at stop lights of course, would appear the low pressure maybe just a smidge East but the precip field pretty much same spot and colder on Northwest side with snow deep in this Georgia although that could be virga.

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metwannabe said:
Tracking winter storms and driving are hazardous to one's Health, with that said just glancing, when I'm stopped at stop lights of course, would appear the low pressure maybe just a smidge East but the precip field pretty much same spot and colder on Northwest side with snow deep in this Georgia although that could be virga.

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Lol southernwx model viewing app is a must

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Looks better for FL, GA, SC. Precip not as far west in NC as 6z, but still a good hit for I-95 corridor. The low crept a little closer to the coast and looks to be in a great spot for RDU east.
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