Brett
Member
Nice he has me for best of heaviest snowFrom met Chris Simmons on Facebook. I'll take it.
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Brett
Member
Heck yeah I'll take 16" lolrgem snowfall map from 06z.
LovingGulfLows
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On the RGEM 850mb winds map, you can see the 850 mb center of circulation just off the NC coast. Naturally, you want to be to the northwest of the 850 mb low for the heaviest snows. You can find the best lift and forcing here.
Brett
Member
New Swiss model for Virginia has 12-16" over me
LovingGulfLows
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Seriously if the RGEM's upper air dynamics are correct, there will be an area of 12-18 inches in NC and Virginia. Super dynamic storm. Would love to be in your location right now. Would not be surprised if you get thundersnow. In fact, I would expect it if the RGEM verifies.
Brett
Member
How strong will the winds be, yeah I get to plow it too, can't wait to make this money and track and enjoy the snow
LovingGulfLows
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RGEM 06z hour 45 and 48 on their maps....Gorgeous for Eastern NC and SE Virginia.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Not sure how you discount the short range models. They are staying consistent.
packfan98
Moderator
The 6z GEFS made some significant improvements. The low placement and precip shield has been shifted about 50 miles west. The biggest net gain was in SE GA, FL, and southern SC. Those significant improvements at that short lead time with the ensembles (and the operational too) makes me think that there will be more corrections further upstream on the next run. Here are a couple of images from the GEFS:
Globals at this hour? who hugs those?
packfan98
Moderator
I think we get hung up on EVERYTHING until all the models come to a general consensus (or the event is over). Unfortunately, the models will have some significant differences until the bitter end. Makes this a fun, and sometimes exasperating, hobby!
packfan98
Moderator
Required morning viewing!
LovingGulfLows
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Might have to issue Blizzard warnings in Eastern NC/SE Virginia later tonight if the NAM/RGEM continue to show the storm as is.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Couldn't draw this up any closer to Jan 2000 if we tried. The intensity and placement of the precipitation shield over southern GA and northern FL is going to be key
MichaelJ
Member
Me, Frosty and lots of others in WNC, Ala, Miss, Tenn and likely even NW Ga are pretty much out of this one but I hope those down East/South will get some good numbers
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I think a lot of folks are sleeping on this one, too. Crazy thing is we are about 36 hours out and no one really knows what it will do in the Triangle area still.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Matthew East said this regarding the comparison to the Jan 2000 storm.
Not going to get the air of of the Deep South moisture injection that one had, most likely.
He did say it's possible the snow could get as far west as the Triad and Charlotte.
Not going to get the air of of the Deep South moisture injection that one had, most likely.
He did say it's possible the snow could get as far west as the Triad and Charlotte.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Do you know much about the WRF-ARW2? From what I can find, it sounds like it's recent performance may be decent but I honestly know nothing about it. In my opinion, I like it's depiction of the surface low consolidating faster (although I think it is too far east and probably too weak) and the precipitation shield the best of all the runs I've seen so far.
Hmm, I'm not sure either but I would agree that's a fairly realistic depiction of what could happen here, snow possible getting as far west as the Triad and Charlotte, with the core of snow over US-1 &/or I-95 and a lot of mixing issues east of I-95... In general the synoptics seem to favor a slightly dampened version of January 2000 if anything, but I'd feel really good about this storm if I was in Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, Roanoke Rapids, & Raleigh-Durham right now... The Triangle was on the eastern edge of the heaviest snows in January 2000 so a little E or SE shift won't hurt us
I don't know really what to think this morning. You have the globals lock and step with one another and refusing to budge but then this morning having the RGEM on board with the NAM is promising. I have winter storm watches one County to my East and rah going with 1-2 here. Going to be fun to watch today especially the location and strength of our short waves and I mean really we are less than 24 hours away from things popping off down south
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Brett
Member
Has a nice heavy snow band over my areaDo you know much about the WRF-ARW2? From what I can find, it sounds like it's recent performance may be decent but I honestly know nothing about it. In my opinion, I like it's depiction of the surface low consolidating faster (although I think it is too far east and probably too weak) and the precipitation shield the best of all the runs I've seen so far.