SimeonNC
Member
So the TWC is hugging the globals and only having about 1-3" for the the coastal Carolinas with a small pocket of 3-5" for SE Virginia. Jim Cantore said that precip will most likely not reach Raleigh.
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
One thing I do know regardless of the synoptic setup almost always precipitation seems to verify NW of the forecast. It may not happen this time but I don't think it can be ignored.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, is there something about the setup that would make someone favor the globals versus the NAM and RGEM, or is it just a case of this area usually doesn't get snow like the short range models show, so go with the ones that show the least?
whatalife
Moderator
It looked like the 06z RGEM and 06z NAM 3k were trying to do just that. There was a little more precipitation NW vs 00z runs.
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SimeonNC
Member
I'm thinking it's the latter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol okay then...
I think one of the main problems is the Euro hasn't budged and it makes it difficult for them to pull the trigger on a forecast with snow west of that. And let's be honest the Euro may very well win out I'm still sitting here thinking I could get nothing or a significant storm, I'd really hate to be in NWS office shoes
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I remember one time the globals were all in agreement on a foot at my house and the mesoscale models were NW. We all said, no the globals will beat those silly mesoscale models. Hours of rain and sleet later the mesoscale models won. .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Similarly in December 2017 when the Euro incessantly insisted on the heaviest snows falling over Greensboro/Winston-Salem even as the event was happening it ended up in the foothills and mountains...
I posted this on the other board as a response to a similar post of yours. In that situation, the issue was warming aloft as opposed to a lack of precipitation making it to us. I don’t know if that matters, but it is a significant difference between the two examples.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I recall that happening before, too. I think the most recent storm in December the globals showed a lot of snow at first and the NAM said nope, and then the globals backed down.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The warming aloft is also related to the northwesterly extent of the precipitation and significant snowfall that occurred in that event (& really in general), because the mid-level WAA was underplayed by the globals (likely in part related to their coarse resolution) not only did the precipitation type here change but it also shifted the axis of heaviest snow NWward because the warm air advection (which is related to lift) was pushed further NW, those two aren't mutually exclusive....
Sandbar
Member
Living in the southern half of wake county, I can count on multiple fingers the last few years that the globals pegged us for decent snow right up to the last few hours to only have the NAM tell the real story in the end. Love the EURO for sniffing out storms in the LR but when it gets down to the last minute the hir res models will tell the story again, especially where there is uncertainty in the finer details. EURO may be right but until the NAM caves to it I trust it more this close to game time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This event is one of the very few, and seemingly awkward times where stronger mid-level WAA than forecast will actually result in more snow along the US-1 & I-95 corridors and not a precipitation type change.... Again WAA is proportional to lift in the levels where it's occurring, and consequently this is also where the dendritic growth zone is located and also where the bergeron and collision-coalescence processes are occurring in clouds. Therefore, more lift here results in more collision-coalesence and accelerates the bergeron process, so we get more precipitation... It's all connected.
Still clinging to hope here in Columbia, SC. Maybe we can get enough light snow in here to cause a dusting to half inch. Making the ground white would make me happy. Not even trying to be greedy here. If some of these short range models verify then it may happen.
SimeonNC
Member
Yes, I remember that all the globals and the forecasts had me at around 6-10". I ended up with a sleet storm and like two inches of snow at the end while my best friend who lived ten miles northwest of me got the snow.
BHS1975
Member
In 2000 the low popped in n fl and moved ne off the sc coast. The nam pops it of s fl and moves it ne farther offshore.
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Thanks for the good explanation. We really oughtta see a convergence in the guidance starting at 12z, I would think. If the NAM and RGEM step toward the globals, it’s going to be tough to expect appreciable snow here, barring a last minute miracle.
Not that it means much but the SREF Plumes just went up for CAE which normally means the NAM is about to come in more West. Atleast that's what I noticed the last 4 runs.