Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, the NAM isn't backing down at all and we're inside 48 hours and it has support from the RGEM. Huge red flags should be going up wrt the global models if they haven't already
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Totals from NAM
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like a lot of the East half of NC is going to get the goods this run.
Brett
Member
Is the nam good now in this time frame just wanna ask?
Bryce Shelton
Member
NWS CAE would have to issue some type of winter product for their eastern areas (Orangeburg, Bamberg, Clarendon, Barnwell, Sumter, Lee, and Calhoun counties)... At least I would think so?
Yes sir, and I've noticed the trend from that run to the new run that the lead wave is slowing down a little more turning more negatively tilted quicker and the precipitation is further Inland in Georgia and the Carolinas and moving through a little bit slower. It will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit, or if this is just a little blip from the NAM, it definitely try to phase this quicker this run
packfan98
Moderator
Even gets Charlotte 1.1"!
Selfishly I hope that continues, LOL that's definitely further Inland Over Georgia and the Carolinas versus the last two runs.Totals from NAM
Flo
Member
Im on the gray dusting line. Haha shocked
Whats robbing this moisture from South Carolina totals were higher with previous runs??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Once again the 3km NAM shows more expansive precipitation further NW into NC than the 12km, not surprising given one can explicitly resolve convection while the other has a comparable resolution to the spectral, global NWP models and parameterizes it which affects the diabatic PV distribution in/around the SE US... We're nearly 36-48 hours of the event, the 3km NAM is probably not pulling our leg.
packfan98
Moderator
Look how close the surface low is to the coast. So different than what the other models had for days. They are now moving towards the idea of one low closer to the coast.
packfan98
Moderator
TEXTBOOK!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So you think it's the one to go with?
Brett
Member
Look how heavy the snow is in New York lol
Brett
Member
NCSNOW
Member
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Been noticing and hoping that ends up being the case. Our backyards have razor thin maneuvering room if we want to get skiffed.
packfan98
Moderator
Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 5m5 minutes ago
The less tight with less vertical motion the West Atlantic low has, the more it will precipitate with northern s/w interaction to the West of it.
The less tight with less vertical motion the West Atlantic low has, the more it will precipitate with northern s/w interaction to the West of it.
Bryce Shelton
Member
Could the low track even closer to the coast?