Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Webberweather53]

Holy crap. Is the NAM really trying to do this

 

[packfan98]

 

[Tarheel1]

Holy crap.
View attachment 2537

Is that even possible??? HUGE shifts per run on hi res models!!?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I want the NW trend for WNC but this may be too early. Still 60 hours out.

 

[Tarheel1]

Holy crap.
View attachment 2537

With that look, has to be blowing up in the gulf!! That's a huge hit for ALOT more folks !

 

[ForsythSnow]

Holy crap. Is the NAM really trying to do this
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I may have to take my comment about this not being Atlanta's storm if that verifies. That could be enough to saturate the entire column.

 

[packfan98]

SC getting major stuff..

 

[Nomanslandva]

Is that a 3rd piece of energy coming in at 42-45h over the top? Anyway, I think I will get a verga storm out of this...

 

[Brick Tamland]

I am really not sure why some are so stuck to this coastal Carolinas only idea. The H5 setup does not support this. Furthermore, from a modeling perspective, the NAM is actually pretty good with H5 interactions. During the January 2017 event it was the first one to push the warm nose further inland, but it seems no one remembers why. The reason why is it had the shortwave responsible for our storm a little stronger, and more neutral to eventually negative tilt earlier. Thus, the NAM handled the H5 evolution of the January 2017 winter storm better than any other guidance at 60 hours out, but even it trended stronger and further west with precipitation right on up until the storm. I made a forecast map of 6-10" west of a CLT to Durham line and a lot of my colleagues thought I was crazy because no guidance suggested that, but the pattern did. The pattern suggests RDU to I-95 in NC as the jackpot zone, and I'm sticking with it unless H5 starts going the other way. 6-12" is not out of reach in this corridor, and locally more could fall if the NAM continues to trend. I also believe sleet will cut down on totals east of I-95 when this is all said and done.

Love the trends and love hearing this and comparisons to Jan 2000. Plenty of time for this to move West more and I get that same feeling I did with the Carolina Crusher that this is going to be a good storm here.

 

[NCSNOW]

Hr 54 comes to papa!

 

[Webberweather53]

Is that even possible??? HUGE shifts per run on hi res models!!?

As mentioned earlier the overall pattern doesn't support a coastal-centric hit here and NWP absolutely suck w/ forecasting heavy precipitation, it wouldn't take much to get a change like that

 

[packfan98]

 

[packfan98]

Very high precip totals. I will post some clown maps when it's finished running.

 

[PennyForYoutThoughts]

Might as well put these frigid temps to good use. Snow in the fla panhandle twice in one winter? We will see.

 

[Tarheel1]

Holy crap. Is the NAM really trying to do this
View attachment 2537

What's with the ATL deathband?

 

[NCSNOW]

Double lps. Loving the one in tight and seems to be the dominant lp, therefore throws way more moisture back inland.

Beleive that German model ,showed double barrel lps last night

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

Warm nose on the NAM brings ZR all the way to RDU. Somehow we will find a way to taint in every instance of a winter storm.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

What's with the ATL deathband?

That's radar imagery from Jan 2000

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[packfan98]

25"

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Lol just woke up, and oh my the NAM. Wow.