Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It can also move back east lol so for everyone saying it's going to come way west could be wrong

Hasn't moved east in 24 hours. Smart money on the west trend. Move to banter if this is not acceptable

 

[Mitch West]

I just checked them for Columbia SC and a few are getting moisture this way now. Also, looks good for Orangburg (south of Columbia). One has over .60 qpf down there.

Dang that's a pretty huge difference for only being around 45 miles away

 

[Brett]

Hasn't moved east in 24 hours. Smart money on the west trend. Move to banter if this is not acceptable

I'm just stating that sometimes they will go back east, I have seen it plenty of times

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Go to tropical tidbits, go find the 3 KM NAM, show the simulated radar/surface maps and watch what happens with the surface low. It literally bounces around like a monkey on crack. Not just small bounces either. Big ones through hour 60. The only reasoning I can think of is all that junk vorticity out there that i posted above.

Just looked. It's like it can't make up it's mind.

 

[Webberweather53]

The more I look at old charts from Jan 2000's carolina crusher, the more the 00z NAM looks like it. Hm. THe ETA missed the precip shield inland, but could that have been because the extra vorticity out in front was there (just not modeled well in 2000) that threw it off?

The similarities at 500 hpa between the NAM forecast and January 2000 are actually very scary...

0z January 25 2000 500 hPa vorticity, wind, and heights via ERA-20C

 

[LovingGulfLows]

NAM closed it off also, but it looks like the RGEM would keep it closed longer!!

On the NAM, it only closes for about an hour over Nebraska at hour 39, then opens up again. RGEM is far more amped.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The similarities at 500 hpa between the NAM forecast and January 2000 are actually very scary...

0z January 25 2000 500 hPa vorticity, wind, and heights via ERA-20C
View attachment 2506

View attachment 2507

Great comparison Web. Great work

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Chaser faster on GFS at 24

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Ridge a lither taller/farther E chaser is coming down lead SW looks to be pivoting W/SW

 

[Storm5]

Guests please take 30 seconds and sign up

 

[Shawn]

GFS looks like it should be a better run so far. Nice!

 

[Xtreme Weather]

About ready to phase it appears lead vort tilted to the SW oh boy

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Looking better at 54!

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Think Carolina's gonna like this run

Lead vort little farther south as well

 

[Shawn]

Side note; sorta relevant. I am happy to see new people posting about 500mb maps! The surface reflection sometimes, doesn't make sense based on 500mb and learning to read the maps will help you immensely with weather model watching & forecasting! The models are free on tropicaltidbits.com (aside from the euro) and more advanced maps are on pivotalweather.com. This storm is a great learning experience!

 

[accu35]

Wow!! Is gfs making a run towards the gulf coast?

 

[Jon]

southern stream is stronger than the 00z NAM @ 54 hr...but northern stream isnt digging as fast south as it was on the NAM. Won't be an early phase this run, but it could still produce given strength of s/w

actually virtually identical to the 00z nam at 60hr as far as the s/w -- northern stream weak like 18z run

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Looks like the phasing is beginning over West TN to me.

 

[Jon]

finally positive tilt between florida panhandle and mainland, negative tilt east of florida mainland. still no real phase.

will be a far coastal counties, coastal plain/obx of NC snowfall

 

[Shawn]

Yeah, low looks to be slower, deeper, and a little West versus 18z. Nice runs tonight so far.