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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

It's funny how some are already giving up on this event even over the eastern piedmont of NC. 3-3.5 days is an eternity in a setup like this when there's several moving pieces in the northern stream, explosive cyclogenesis, and extreme amounts of diabatic heating generated from very deep convection, the inconsistencies at the surface (in spite of the similar appearance aloft) is reflection of how difficult it is for NWP to forecast intense precipitation, which by far is the most unpredictable and among the most poorly measured variables. Need at the very least 2-3 more model cycles to diagnose the probability of intense precipitation well inland over the Carolinas...
 
1300m said:
I'm not sure you can call it yet. At the same time on the 12z run the low was in nearly the same position, and it went on to be a good run. Based on the 24hr panels, I'm not even sure it isn't a tad west of 12z at 96hrs.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but from the (crappy) maps I've come across thus far, the low on the UKMET possesses a double barrel-structure w/ another secondary low trying to develop further NW near the Outer Banks...
 
1300m said:
Also don't let it be lost that even though we've seen massive leaps in NWP performance in the last 17 years that a similar pattern could be producing similar issues. In the end, the meteorology will always win.
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That's a very good point, and a side note, whether we all love or hate JB, his pattern recognition skills are the best I've ever seen. The weather will repeat itself, does he miss a lot, oh hell yes. Does he get a lot right, yes. And usually he can sniff it out before it happens.
 
deltadog03 said:
If the low closed off, and the energy drove into it over the Mississippi River, it would slow it down and really turn it negative and it would be super fun LOL
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I have a few guesses:
1. The negative tilt corresponds to a low closer to the coast, bringing snow well inland to more areas, but still not near Atlanta or Greenville, SC.
2. It causes a perfect storm for the Coast and the Carolinas, AKA another Carolina Crusher
3. A huge bomb that affects everyone (unlikely)
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have a few guesses:
1. The negative tilt corresponds to a low closer to the coast, bringing snow well inland to more areas, but still not near Atlanta or Greenville, SC.
2. It causes a perfect storm for the Coast and the Carolinas, AKA another Carolina Crusher
3. A huge bomb that affects everyone (unlikely)
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I vote for #3. Lol the 1 percent chance.
 
1300m said:
Also don't let it be lost that even though we've seen massive leaps in NWP performance in the last 17 years that a similar pattern could be producing similar issues. In the end, the meteorology will always win.
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Exactly couldn't say it better myself. If people are distraught on why we're urging to remain extra cautious even inside day 4 here, just take a second to think about how accurate are your daily forecasts for scattered airmass thunderstorms in the summer? Well, take that up another order of magnitude and then try to predict the following day's convection based on how the current day is going to evolve and then some, it's really not easy to do w/ the plethora of second-order sub-grid scale processes that are all simultaneously acting to regulate the current and forthcoming convection and non-linear feeding back and amplifying each other. The diabatic contribution w/ this storm is extremely large relative to a similar suite of extratropical cyclones and everyone should remain vigilant of the uncertainties and verification that's involved w/ forecasts of heavy, convective precipitation because quite frankly we suck at predicting it...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Exactly couldn't say it better myself. If people are distraught on why we're urging to remain extra cautious even inside day 4 here, just take a second to think about how accurate are your daily forecasts for scattered airmass thunderstorms in the summer? Well, take that up another order of magnitude and then try to predict the following day's convection based on how the current day is going to evolve and then some, it's really not easy to do w/ the plethora of second-order sub-grid scale processes that are all simultaneously acting to regulate the current and forthcoming convection and non-linear feeding back and amplifying each other. The diabatic contribution w/ this storm is extremely large relative to a similar suite of extratropical cyclones and everyone should remain vigilant of the uncertainties that are involved w/ forecasts of heavy, convective precipitation because quite frankly they suck...
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We had about 6 hours notice for the Carolina Crusher. Really, after that we should know it can get better up to the day of the storm.
 
Uhm. What's happening here?

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