Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Xtreme Weather]

finally positive tilt between florida panhandle and mainland, negative tilt east of florida mainland. still no real phase.

will be a far coastal counties, coastal plain/obx of NC snowfall

Yup never phased close but no

 

[Stormsfury]

66hr is not as strong at 18z over GA. 18z had it Neutral/slightly NEG. Slightly Positive/Neutral this run

 

[deltadog03]

No real phase for gfs and no go. I think it's out to lunch. Has no other model support really

 

[deltadog03]

66hr is not as strong at 18z over GA. 18z had it Neutral/slightly NEG. Slightly Positive/Neutral this run

I think gfs is likely wrong with no phase. If euro doesn't phase them, well I will say maybe gfs is onto something. But I doubt it

 

[Shawn]

To recap so far, the RGEM and NAM which are higher resolution models are both trying to do much more with our system. The 9KM Euro will be interesting tonight. It should be able to handle 500mb energy quite well, although it can be phase happy sometimes. UKMET will be out soon enough to hopefully give us an idea if it wants to stay East or jog back West, along with an idea of what Euro may be thinking.

 

[Brett]

Gfs still looks to have to little precip to the west also, I think it's out to lunch like others say!!

 

[Stormsfury]

I think gfs is likely wrong with no phase. If euro doesn't phase them, well I will say maybe gfs is onto something. But I doubt it

18z CMC was definitely stronger than 12z so let's see if CMC keeps up the trend it started at 18z.

GFS seemed ... lagging lol

 

[LovingGulfLows]

To recap so far, the RGEM and NAM which are higher resolution models are both trying to do much more with our system. The 9KM Euro will be interesting tonight. It should be able to handle 500mb energy quite well, although it can be phase happy sometimes. UKMET will be out soon enough to hopefully give us an idea if it wants to stay East or jog back West, along with an idea of what Euro may be thinking.

The RGEM at the 500mb level has scary potential. Bombs away if that's the solution that verifies.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol convective feedback ftw

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC

 

[Brett]

CMC looks amazing for my area

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC isn't there yet but it is better than its 12z run

 

[accu35]

 

[Rain Cold]

We have a couple of more model cycles to go, and then it’s going to be time to let this one go, from an inland perspective, I’m afraid.

 

[accu35]

Ill take it.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

CMC trended little farther W with this run again hoping Carolina and other on the lower SE coast and inland can cash in since we had ours already LoL

 

[Shawn]

UKMET kinda sucks. East.

 

[Mitch West]

Oh jeez let me go sleep before all the bad trends and negativity start pouring in. Goodnight everyone and happy New Years!

 

[deltadog03]

Well we shall see if euro continues the trend better and quicker phase or does it goes east and a mess

 

[deltadog03]

Notice 3km nam does show some light precip further inland so far