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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

justin2k23 said:
Me too!
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You have to like the general trends for our area, but I hope that this isn't a situation where we end up being too far west instead of the typical too far east. However, I do think that this is probably our best chance for an accumulating snowfall of greater than two inches since the February 12, 2010 storm. In my opinion, we are in the perfect location considering the ongoing trends that have occurred today.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Yes I'm just curious just how far NW this can keep trending
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I believe it can trend considerably further NW than even what the 0Z Nam is suggesting. The trend have been the pieces of energy phase quicker and quicker and the storm track is further Northwest.If this keeps up for a few more model runs,then Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could end up with moderate to perhaps in some cases even heavy snowfall.
 
Michael21 said:
I believe it can trend considerably further NW than even what the 0Z Nam is suggesting. The trend have been the pieces of energy phase quicker and quicker and the storm track is further Northwest.If this keeps up for a few more model runs,then Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could end up with moderate to perhaps in some cases even heavy snowfall.
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I at least hope you realize that 100-200 miles is not as far as you may think. That still does not get you to North Georgia/Upstate/WNC. Try 300+.
 
Shawn said:
The more I look at old charts from Jan 2000's carolina crusher, the more the 00z NAM looks like it. Hm. THe ETA missed the precip shield inland, but could that have been because the extra vorticity out in front was there (just not modeled well in 2000) that threw it off?
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Very possible...... never thought of that.
 
Is this why Jan 2000 happened, and is this why the low is placed wrong here? This is intriguing to me, to find out if all that vorticity junk was there/not modeled in 2000.

nam3km_z500_vort_seus_61.png
 
Michael21 said:
I believe it can trend considerably further NW than even what the 0Z Nam is suggesting. The trend have been the pieces of energy phase quicker and quicker and the storm track is further Northwest.If this keeps up for a few more model runs,then Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could end up with moderate to perhaps in some cases even heavy snowfall.
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You have been right so far my friend. It has moved 200 miles in a day. To think it can't move another 200 tomorrow is silly and those that say it can't are wish casting IMO
 
Another reason to compare this storm to the 2000 Carolina Crusher is the fact that, atleast around the Midlands of SC, is people not being prepared.The local mets are not talking about this storm hardly at all, if any. That storm caught everyone off guard cause like some of you all have said, the ETA didn't have the precip further enough inland. I've heard so many stories from my family about how they were only calling for maybe some flurries and suddenly 4-6 inches of snow ended up falling. I was only 9 so i don't remember much of the lead up personally to the storm. I'm wondering, if these trends continue obviously like this by tomorrow's 00z runs, if the local mets will begin to warn people especially if it's beginning to look like a big one.
 
The 250 jet depiction isn't even far off from the maps I have seen of Jan 2000. This is getting interesting. The NAM is the model that replaced the ETA if I am not mistaken.

In fact, the neutral tilt isnt even far off of Jan 2000 based on the 00z NAM.
 
What's going to be interesting is if better modeling doesn't end up mattering in this kind of setup and you still don't see enough precip appearing even with that "junk" actually showing up on the models until right up to go time.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
What's going to be interesting is if better modeling doesn't end up mattering in this kind of setup and you still don't see enough precip appearing even with that "junk" actually showing up on the models until right up to go time.
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Go to tropical tidbits, go find the 3 KM NAM, show the simulated radar/surface maps and watch what happens with the surface low. It literally bounces around like a monkey on crack. Not just small bounces either. Big ones through hour 60. The only reasoning I can think of is all that junk vorticity out there that i posted above.
 
Shawn said:
I just checked them for Columbia SC and a few are getting moisture this way now. Also, looks good for Orangburg (south of Columbia). One has over .60 qpf down there.
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Yep SE VA, EC, ESC possibly central NC I can see doing well idk about Charlotte they are pretty far west
 
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