Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[dsaur]

If the HRRR doesn't watch out it's going to take the CAD into Alabama! 23z run extends it further, just one county away from the border.

A good cad goes into Ala seemingly easily. It's how I grade them. If it's in Ala. then things can happen

 

[LongRanger]

If that wedge is stronger than modeled it may just choke off some moisture which would cut into ice totals

 

[SnowDeac]

There’s significant moisture blossoming off the coast of South GA and moving north. I’m not smart enough to know if that matters but…

 

[Spurs up]

Well, I don’t think that’s the trend here. That dry air no doubt will be freezing rain IMO. The trend is to a more moist scenario to our

Praying for little accumulation of ice here

 

[dsaur]

For Newnan area?

Cad can get to you of it's stouter then the models have been seeing. Just go by temps east of you and hope you stay above freezing. Waa is probably going to win, but before it goes away cad will put up a stiff fight.

 

[weather bubba]

Almost looks like the new low is trying to form off the SC coast instead of the NC/VA coast

What impact would the more southern formation of the second low have on this storm?

 

[HailCore]

Would support the idea of the initial surface low not going nearly as far north before it transfers

I do wonder if the few reports we have heard of an underperforming storm to the far north could suggest moisture transport is overall further south which might be connected to a further south low track? Probably too early to tell though.

 

[dsaur]

There’s significant moisture blossoming off the coast of South GA and moving north. I’m not smart enough to know if that matters but…

Yeah, and blowing up quickly.

 

[iGRXY]

That dry slot over central mississippi and east Louisiana is really starting to fill in

 

[Round Oak Weather]

That dry slot over central mississippi and east Louisiana is really starting to fill in

I’ve seen some people talking about how it isn’t that bad out there but the worst is to come

 

[Nomanslandva]

HRRR has been right in terms of the front end thump for VA folks. NAM too warm and did not have much snow up to this point for us. Got about a half inch with 5-6 more hours of snow to come. Just wish it was heavier, our flakes are tinyyyyy

Rates pretty sad so far. Models trended down from 6" on the thump to now, maybe 2-3"? NWS also backed off on totals. Still concerned about ice. NAM has little but HRRR looks worse. Not sure what to make of it all. In the back of my mind, I have "warm nose always over performs so...

 

[Brent]

Yeah all these people here talking about how the storm sucks and this and that

I get it but the models are showing us getting absolutely slammed overnight

 

[iGRXY]

Freezing rain is already being reported to our northeast and and west. Not good at all

 

[Nomanslandva]

Yeah all these people here talking about how the storm sucks and this and that

I get it but the models are showing us getting absolutely slammed overnight

You still have a shot at breaking records?

 

[Brent]

You still have a shot at breaking records?

I dunno about that because the first round was so underwhelming but I can see some places getting 10

Well see how good it is around midnight haha. The only reason I'm a tad skeptical is last night but the models have always looked better tonight here from the beginning

 

[chase223322]

Starting to fall here in NE GA and its already freezing on solid surfaces like my landscape lights and mailbox

 

[LukeBarrette]

Rates pretty sad so far. Models trended down from 6" on the thump to now, maybe 2-3"? NWS also backed off on totals. Still concerned about ice. NAM has little but HRRR looks worse. Not sure what to make of it all. In the back of my mind, I have "warm nose always over performs so...

I think the 925 mb temps will over perform. Bring me all the sleet please

 

[BullCityWx]

Follow 77 and watch the temps change

 

[Tarheel1]

We don’t use LR models at this juncture?? 18z GFS:

 

[Tokenfreak]

What’s up with the costal freezing rain for SC on the HRRR? We weren’t expecting anything lol

 

[beanskip]

Follow 77 and watch the temps change
View attachment 188713

The CAD is definitely doing its thing -- just wondering if it's doing TOO good of a job -- seems like precip is going to have a hard time saturating the column -- HRRR just trending to such anemic QPF around CLT, at least through daybreak.

 

[Rain Cold]

NAM was matching up much better with current radar trends as of 7 pm than the RGEM. I don't know if that 100% guarantees anything later on as far as precip amounts go, but I sure hope the NAM ends up being closer to to reality than the RGEM, even if it means we have to say Kylo was right. Always be humble.

 

[LukeBarrette]

I think underestimated snowfall depth. We have almost 2 inches now

 

[beanskip]

0z HRR continues trend of really cutting back on QPF from Atlanta up to Charlotte. This has been ongoing for multiple runs. The CAD is strong.

 

[BullCityWx]

NAM was matching up much better with current radar trends as of 7 pm than the RGEM. I don't know if that 100% guarantees anything later on as far as precip amounts go, but I sure hope the NAM ends up being closer to to reality than the RGEM, even if it means we have to say Kylo was right. Always be humble.

Man I’ll pull for Sean Payton to win the Super Bowl if it means we avoid disaster.

 

[chase223322]

Follow 77 and watch the temps change
View attachment 188713

These temps dont look right at all for here? We’re already at 31 and the tiny amount that fell froze immediately

 

[Stevo24]

We got sleet here in Anderson.

 

[NCSNOW]

Future radar. 2:00 AM

 

[Mpirone12]

Been sleeting in Greensboro for an hour. Roads already an ice rink. This will be fun….


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[Mpirone12]

Future radar. 2:00 AM



View attachment 188720

You’re close to me. What are you thinking towards us?


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[LongRanger]

0z HRR continues trend of really cutting back on QPF from Atlanta up to Charlotte. This has been ongoing for multiple runs. The CAD is strong.View attachment 188717

That CAD gonna eat away at that Precip. If rates are light it's gonna have a hard time making it to the surface

 

[ATLHokie]

0z HRR continues trend of really cutting back on QPF from Atlanta up to Charlotte. This has been ongoing for multiple runs. The CAD is strong.View attachment 188717

This is another example of the short term models not showing the precip. This is why people keep downplaying the storm.

 

[Spurs up]

That CAD gonna eat away at that Precip. If rates are light it's gonna have a hard time making it to the surface

I agree

 

[tramadoc]

I still don’t see how this low is possibly going to ride the apps and transfer from Roanoke to the Jersey Shore (as the NAM shows). That wedge is stout!

Also, perhaps a dumb question but is there any chance those bands in the Atlantic off N FL/S GA pop a secondary low and merge with our main storm?

Well, there’s this low SSE of Wilmington.

 

[tramadoc]

I believe it could be bad but also why shouldn’t I enjoy a normal Saturday? We’re still hours away from the onset.

Right? Me and my girl just got back from dinner out.

 

[thunderwolf]

I know this doesn't really have anything to do with the winter storm, but the amount of WAA we will have here at the coast is wild. It's currently 31F in Beaufort, NC. According to the NAM, by 10am the same spot will be in the mid 60s, while Goldsboro, about 100 miles away, is still at or below freezing.

 

[tramadoc]

Would support the idea of the initial surface low not going nearly as far north before it transfers

Okay, so what happens to us up the coast at the VA/NC line if the low pops off SC (it is already showing on maps).

 

[RBR71]

I could do without this.... ugh

 

[Nerman]

0z HRR continues trend of really cutting back on QPF from Atlanta up to Charlotte. This has been ongoing for multiple runs. The CAD is strong.View attachment 188717

You can already see the moisture in lower MS/AL heading that way.

 

[tramadoc]

I know this doesn't really have anything to do with the winter storm, but the amount of WAA we will have here at the coast is wild. It's currently 31F in Beaufort, NC. According to the NAM, by 10am the same spot will be in the mid 60s, while Goldsboro, about 100 miles away, is still at or below freezing.

I’m north of the Albemarle Sound and we’re at 25°.