It's gotta be close. At the very least, its impressive the sheer scale. Warnings from the TX/Mexico border to Maine/Canada for one.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I’m out driving around …. Sleet in the 801 - Troutman area
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I know that I am rooting for two things to happen that some of the models are showing for Central North Carolina:
1. The dry slot showing up and cutting total QPF on Sunday
2. The warm air flowing in from the coast overcoming the CAD and turning this into rain for the Triangle from Sunday afternoon forward.
If either or both of these happen, ice accrual will end up in the RDU area at around .25 inches or less. If not, the totals go up close to .50 inches and potentially higher depending on QPF rates. I am not a professional meteorologist so this is based on my gut feelings based on the data I've seen.
1. The dry slot showing up and cutting total QPF on Sunday
2. The warm air flowing in from the coast overcoming the CAD and turning this into rain for the Triangle from Sunday afternoon forward.
If either or both of these happen, ice accrual will end up in the RDU area at around .25 inches or less. If not, the totals go up close to .50 inches and potentially higher depending on QPF rates. I am not a professional meteorologist so this is based on my gut feelings based on the data I've seen.
rburrel2
Member
Guys…. lol. She ain’t done trending colder. Atlanta is getting got
rburrel2
Member
We’re trending colder at 925mb too. Sleet bomb incoming for the upstate
HRRR is not a good look for the city(ATL).......if it holds true.
For those on the south side of some of these silly CAM forecast low QPF totals, may I suggest taking a gander at regional radar?
weather.cod.edu
COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar
Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data
weather.cod.edu
WxBlue
Meteorologist
2nd UNC Asheville balloon just launched. Warm nose has increased from 2°C to 3.8°C in last 3 hours. It is above freezing from 1540 m to 2926 m.
Snowflowxxl
Member
22Z HRR 
Mpirone12
Member
Does anyone have HRR total precip?
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dsaur
Member
It strikes me that it's about interpretation. Each storm teaches us about reading the tea leaves. There is an art to weather that machines can't compete with. If the masses really cared about the weather they'd insist on data out the wazzoo and banks of supercomputers to crunch 10, 20, 50 times the data available now. It's doable but cost money, so the public gets the foolproof prediction they pay for. I still don't know for sure how much zr I'm getting, because it feels like more than a quarter inch standing out there in the still expectancy, and I know what cads do down here...and that there is the art in it.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Absurd to me how there is a risk of another winter storm potentially before some areas even completely recover from this weeks.
That warm nose means business.
This is what some of us have asked for.
beanskip
Member
Looks like the 32F wet bulb line is on Atlanta's door step with cold air still pumping in.
SnowDeac
Member
I still don’t see how this low is possibly going to ride the apps and transfer from Roanoke to the Jersey Shore (as the NAM shows). That wedge is stout!
Also, perhaps a dumb question but is there any chance those bands in the Atlantic off N FL/S GA pop a secondary low and merge with our main storm?
Also, perhaps a dumb question but is there any chance those bands in the Atlantic off N FL/S GA pop a secondary low and merge with our main storm?
wow
Member
I'm off 801 by Mt Ulla elementary.. haven't seen much of anything so far.
dsaur
Member
Hunker down. I think it's been underplayed too much. In that wind it's gonna get bad.
If I'm reading this correctly where I have the H is is where the high pressure is? Cause it still holding strong at 1038mb and may explain why we still have dews well in the negatives in Southern VA/North-Central NC
Winston Salem
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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HRRR has been right in terms of the front end thump for VA folks. NAM too warm and did not have much snow up to this point for us. Got about a half inch with 5-6 more hours of snow to come. Just wish it was heavier, our flakes are tinyyyyy
Corey Ford
Member
Do we have a sense of how long the 925 will support sleet for the Upstate and CLT areas?
NewnanWetather
Member
For Newnan area?
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I can promise I just got home….. no one 250 miles North of you takes it seriously apparently. Tons of people out just eating dinner doing normal Saturday things
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Mpirone12
Member
Just started in the triad
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I believe it could be bad but also why shouldn’t I enjoy a normal Saturday? We’re still hours away from the onset.
packfan98
Moderator
Flurries here.
Westganick
Member
It’s not coming in until after midnight. People can go out in the evening and enjoy a dinner to support resteraunts that may be closed tomorrow. It is a normal Saturday night for normal folks.
beanskip
Member
If the HRRR doesn't watch out it's going to take the CAD into Alabama! 23z run extends it further, just one county away from the border.
beanskip
Member
On the other hand, the QPF keeps drying up along I-85 -- at lesat early in the run. Presumably those two things are connected.
Brent
Member
An hour south of here!
a_gilmore88
Member
Already have a mix of sleet and freezing rain in SE Rowan County, 21.9°. Not good at all for future ice totals.
Check out areas closer to the coast with this trend. 
I don't mind seeing CAE being drier
Almost looks like the new low is trying to form off the SC coast instead of the NC/VA coast
Well, I don’t think that’s the trend here. That dry air no doubt will be freezing rain IMO. The trend is to a more moist scenario to our East.
iGRXY
Member
Would support the idea of the initial surface low not going nearly as far north before it transfers