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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Stormsfury said:
I really don't exactly know BUT I think this might imply a fill in on the high pressure and no escape hatch, more banana high pressure. It also could pertain to models and the energy flying around having it incorrect. All I do know is the what ContentWeatherGuy said. The northern and southern areas of this still could see HUGE adjustments between now and go time.
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I asked ChatGPT “What impact does a banana high-pressure have on winter storms in the southeast?”

“Great question — this is one of those meteorology terms that sounds silly but actually matters a lot 🍌🌪️

Short answer:

A banana high usually suppresses winter storms in the Southeast by pushing cold air too far east and shunting storm tracks south or offshore — often leaving the region cold and dry instead of snowy.

Longer, but useful, version:

What’s a “banana high”?


It’s an elongated, curved area of high pressure that stretches from the Plains through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast — shaped like a banana on weather maps. It often forms after a strong cold-air outbreak.

How it affects Southeast winter storms

1. Cold air is there… but it’s too aggressive
  • The high pushes cold, dense air deep into the Southeast.
  • Sounds good for snow, right? But the problem is timing and placement.

2. Storms get shoved south or east

  • The strong high creates a pressure wall.
  • Incoming Gulf or southern-stream lows:
    • get forced along the Gulf Coast, or
    • slide offshore before moisture can lift north into the cold air

Result: Cold air with no moisture = ❄️ nothing happens.

3. Dry air wedges in (classic CAD setup)
  • The high feeds dry continental air southward.
  • Even if a storm approaches, precipitation can:
    • evaporate before reaching the ground, or fall well south of the region.
4. When storms do happen, they’re fast and marginal
  • If a low sneaks in:
    • It’s usually weak, suppressed, and moving quickly.
    • Precip is light and often confined to southern GA / FL panhandle.
    • Inland Southeast gets flurries at best.
Bottom line for snow lovers in the Southeast

A banana high is usually bad news:

  • Too much high pressure
  • Storm track suppressed
  • Cold + dry instead of cold + wet
Snowier setups usually prefer:

  • A retreating high (not overpowering)
  • A low that can track along the Gulf then up the coast
  • Just enough cold air — not a brick wall

If you want, tell me which state or city you’re thinking about (NC vs GA vs TN makes a big difference), or whether you’re looking at a specific forecast setup — happy to nerd out on it 😄”
 
NCwx1992 said:
View attachment 188168this would be a life saver for Western/Pidemont of NC and basically all of SC if it verified -- weirdly, worse ZR in NC is in a strip east of the triangle
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It's a big jog south with IP/Snow for NC/SC and a bigger impact SE into GA compared to 12z theres still room for improvement for NC/SC and room for more disaster for GA
 
BufordWX said:
Here is a updated listing of the possible range of ice accumulation by city in the FFC area. The numbers from this mornings version is below for anyone curious to see the difference.

New:View attachment 188162




Old:View attachment 188163
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Interesting how the folks at the FFC leave out the county full of towns they are located in. Coweta too. 🤣

Very important that Columbus is included though. 😑
 
Ross said:
we don't have a leg to stand on tbh. they said it would trend north and our best and brightest collectively said "get a load of these blowhards" and then it trended north. i hated their smugness but game respects game
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Yep, MC got it more right than wrong going back to last Sunday.
 
NCwx1992 said:
View attachment 188168this would be a life saver for Western/Pidemont of NC and basically all of SC if it verified -- weirdly, worse ZR in NC is in a strip east of the triangle
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Do not buy this map-- it is estimating ptype incorrectly. Check soundings and you will see plenty of ZR in the Upstate and Piedmont
 
Another dumb question for a met. I used to remember a lot of talk about the "tilt" of upper level features. Haven't heard that on this system. Looking at the not-so-minor-changes in the currently running 18z ICON, does the changing tilt of the features -- either the northern or Baja disturbances -- have any bearing on how the sensible weather pans out? trend-icon-2026012318-f012.500hv.conus.gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
Do not buy this map-- it is estimating ptype incorrectly. Check soundings and you will see plenty of ZR in the Upstate and Piedmont
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Moreover, it changes many over to plain rain with the final little bit, which may or may not be realistic depending on whether you think it's breaking down the CAD too quickly (which seems likely to me, but I don't have any scientific backing for that aside from the models often do it - and most other models don't do it here).
 
superjames1992 said:
Moreover, it changes many over to plain rain with the final little bit, which may or may not be realistic depending on whether you think it's breaking down the CAD too quickly (which seems likely to me, but I don't have any scientific backing for that aside from the models often do it - and most other models don't do it here).
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I can buy the change to plain rain if the low does indeed track up thru WV before jumping off the Jersey coast like the NAM just showed.

I don’t buy that track though. I’m in the camp that thinks the low will track lower and cut across the SE before jumping off the Carolina coast. Wedge seems stout, we shall see.
 
Models are in good agreement with this starting early Sunday morning and then initial overrunning done by early afternoon with a lull until that evening for that final band.

floop-rdps-2026012318.qpf_003h-imp.us_ma.gif

Models are showing this as a heavy band but at this point the surface low is to our north and temps are approaching 32F and some models have temps 33-34F. I think for Raleigh this is probably going to be rain but back west towards the triad this could be bad.

Screenshot 2026-01-23 at 4.12.11 PM.pngScreenshot 2026-01-23 at 4.11.53 PM.png
 
KyloG said:
Well their goes the lighter precip scenario...

View attachment 188158
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The dynamics have never supported the dry scenario tbh. You could throw the best model since sliced bread in my face but if the setup doesn’t support it, then I could care less what the model says.

Show me these maps below and I’ll still forecast at least a freezing drizzle or light zr, despite whatever the model output precip is midday Sunday when the dry slot comes in.

I have moist isentropic upglide over my intense and shallow cad dome with some mid level warm advection and a little upper air support to boot.

What more do I need to get at least FZDZ or -ZR here? Only took the NAM til now to figure that out 😂

IMG_7492.png

IMG_7491.png

IMG_7490.png

IMG_7493.png
 
Questions: when do you think the models are going to stop running the primary low up the apps and become a southern slider? this wedge is strong and stout. I still think the models are under estimating the struggle. I also think the WAA will become more limited as the models continue on. this wedge is not going to break down that fast. that is 1040-1042 Wedge. I believe it is going to go back into Alabama.
 
Ross said:
we don't have a leg to stand on tbh. they said it would trend north and our best and brightest collectively said "get a load of these blowhards" and then it trended north. i hated their smugness but game respects game
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Hasn't finished trending back south yet. They still look like a bunch of blowhards. They said it would continue trending north and become a Chicago storm.
 
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