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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

BufordWX said:
HRRR showing a small finger of light precipitation all the way into W GA tomorrow morning. Maybe even trying to sqeeze a few flakes out in far N AL as well?View attachment 188199
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None of the models have been showing frozen precip over north Alabama....correct? I wasn't expecting anything but some FR or sleet in extreme NW Alabama. Are temps on HRRR colder than what has been modeled? I wonder what that means for NW GA where temps were expected to be much cooler than Bama with the CAD.
 
SkynyrdDawg said:
None of the models have been showing frozen precip over north Alabama....correct? I wasn't expecting anything but some FR or sleet in extreme NW Alabama. Are temps on HRRR colder than what has been modeled?
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The 18z GFS is showing a bit of frozen in N AL as we speak:

1769204391016.png
 
BufordWX said:
HRRR showing a small finger of light precipitation all the way into W GA tomorrow morning. Maybe even trying to sqeeze a few flakes out in far N AL as well?View attachment 188199
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1769204367816.png
Would be careful thinking much would happen, would need at least an hour to saturate the atmosphere
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 188203
Would be careful thinking much would happen, would need at least an hour to saturate the atmosphere
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1769204476534.png
even the stuff to the west would proabably lack saturation at the surface. I would bet on maybe some sleet pings with this for sure.
Edit: Also absolutely no saturation in the DGZ would probably be rain
 
SnowmasterATL said:
Question, what happens GA if the low doesn't cut?
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From what I understand the longer the Low rides the gulf and stays south the lesser impact the warm nose will be downstream thru GA Sunday and additional the track of the low trending further south is *I believe* helping the early Saturday lowering and over-running from MS/AL. This helps two ways it keeps the Warm Nose growth lesser longer allowing the CAD to build in stronger and get in place with little issue.

Now....
If it never cut and curled up thru Florida like Miller A then later in Sunday that changeover to rain probably doesn't happen north of I-20 Warm nose stays south and with cold press come in parts of N.GA could see Sleet/Snow mixture VERY UNLIKELY
 
malak05 said:
From what I understand the longer the Low rides the gulf and stays south the lesser impact the warm nose will be downstream thru GA Sunday and additional the track of the low trending further south is *I believe* helping the early Saturday lowering and over-running from MS/AL. This helps two ways it keeps the Warm Nose growth lesser longer allowing the CAD to build in stronger and get in place with little issue.

Now....
If it never cut and curled up thru Florida like Miller A then later in Sunday that changeover to rain probably doesn't happen north of I-20 Warm nose stays south and with cold press come in parts of N.GA could see Sleet/Snow mixture VERY UNLIKELY
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the problem I have is...I don't think the low will cut, Wishfully thinking maybe.
 
RAH mentions a third low involved (maybe)....

A pair of lows will develop along the srn and ern periphery of the
wedge, one over the central Gulf Coast and the other off the
Southeast US coast Sat night/Sun. The leading low off the Southeast
US coast will lift nwd along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts
Sat night/Sun. A third low may develop north of or break off from
the Gulf Coast low and lift nwd along and west of the Appalachians
on Sunday, while the primary low tracks ewd across the Deep South
and Southeast. It should then lift newd along the Carolina coast and
meet up with the leading low off the Northeast US coast Sun night.
Click to expand...
 
Soil temps are pretty middling after the last couple days, but not terrible. They shouldn't pose much of a factor with BL temps so cold, anyways (not to mention the cold between now and then). I tend to find soil temps matter most when you get wintry precip around / above freezing (particularly during the daytime hours), but that won't be the case for most in the Carolinas, at least.

1769205577218.png
 
The NAM is great for thermals! Nails the wedge temps and the upper level thermals as well! Wouldn’t worry about the 18z GFS
Guaranteed ATL will be colder than the GFS models
 
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