Some met could correct me here but I think this is going to be a bit of duel LP situation where the inland surface low tracks NE up the apps a bit while the weaker coastal continues to strengthen and move up off Va where it takes over as the primary. All the while these two will be linked dragging a warm front north over us?? I think...
I’ve seen them split north and south Fulton before. I can only imagine they are making the determination on which counties to put in the ice storm warning vs winter weather advisory or freezing rain advisory, if that is still a thing.
I route for the NAM...I know everyone...dont ban me!
for some reason, I can see the ICON temp profile but the qdf seems to be overdone for me.
I agree, I thought the secondary low was being modeled by most to form further north (central NC coast or even further up than that).
It’s been a long time I think. For Feb 2014 I think ISW was further south and east towards Augusta. Atlanta mainly stayed in the sleet. Before that maybe SB storm of 2000, but I’m not sure that was even an ISW maybe until it had literally started.
Would be hilarious if the temps are there for a major ice storm in Atlanta but then there’s no precip3K NAM kinda shows that scenario
Most models have been steady in that they delay the onset of precipitation. What effects on what might happen for each area, I do not know. Perhaps some of our more knowledgeable posters could enlighten me on this
With the QPF totals the ICON was putting down, these ice accrual totals are lighter than I expected.
Looks to me like it is trending more towards ZR for RDU as well and less IP??
This seems to be in line with KRDU is forecasting for the Raleigh area. I'm surprised though that totals are heavier to the south and east and Greensboro gets less ice than KRDU.
If I took this literally, I am almost out of the ZR zone while ATL and NE ATL gets clobbered. GFS/ICON I think are on steroids (maybe not).
Both...the heaviest of the ice will be Northeast of the city. We will see ice then turn to rain if the CAD erodes quick, which is never the case. I think the GFS/ICON are overdoing the totals though.
If we get .75-1.00 ice accruals before then... then yes... we will have probably warmed to 32(or close to it) through latent heat release by the time that last band passes overhead.
Is that not a sleet sounding on the 2nd graph at 54hrs??
if there's real convection/line of storms then the vertical motion/turbulence associated with that would help erode the cold dome
See above. Greensboro gets 1.1 freezing rain after the changeover with temps lower than 23 degrees, except last hour
The GFS has now joined the ICON in putting out a nightmare solution for many of us. I hope this isn't the start of a negative trend.
It’s because of how much thinner the two layers will be here. Plus, we could get slower rain which leads to worse accumulation
Thank you. That map was hard for my old eyes to read.
In the past the models are always a step ahead of themselves eroding the CAD too fast. This is about as strong of a CAD you will ever see and I just can't imagine it eroding quickly. With that said, with heavy freezing rain and latent heat release, this may aid somewhat where the heaviest of liquid precip occurs.
Nah. Just watch the HRRR at this point.
Not sure if serious.
