I still think Raleigh is going to get at least 0.25" of ZR. I know it could be worse but if we get snow, sleet, then that. It's still going to be a major issue
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s not going to be totally dry even if the bulk of the precip is to the north and west. We will have to contend with many hours of patchy ZR that will be very effective at sticking to everything. Just not a high ceiling of course
Ice storm warning for the entire GSP CWA. Most of the region has 18-24 hours of ZR soundings on the latest NAM
Yup been trying to hammer this for a while now on here and on socials this morning. You are probably going to see the highest ZRs of the event there
The NAM is 5-10 degrees warmer than FV3 at hr 60. This is hugely consequential because that’s shortly before the “squall line” where the NAM changes most folks over to rain. GSO is instead at 19 degrees as that’s fixing to come through, RDU 24, CLT 23.
Snowflowxxl
Member
FV3 scored big in January of 2025 here. Not even close to the same type of event though so probably a nothing burger
beanskip
Member
Yet another map and post by you that selectively chooses a time frame that makes it seem like "slower" equals "less." Here is the actual comparison of the full storm QPF from 12z to 6z NAM. It's wetter for almost everyone, not drier. Why you are allowed to keep doing this is beyond me.
I don't think Raleigh is going to be lucky enough to make it above 32. Maybe we can pull off a 33 but I've been talking with colleagues and the concern is high with this.
This was already mentioned. This is agreed...we are talking about the delay of the system. It is slower to arrive.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We’re getting less QPF but more of that QPF is going to be freezing rain instead of sleet and will have higher ice-liquid-ratios because it’s lighter, at least until the cold front shows up late Sunday.
There’s definitely a trade off here
Wait, the event has already occurred? Not sure you can say "could have been much worse" yet. You, me, and everyone else have no idea what's actually happened until AFTER the event. Yes, it could be a bit less OR more. The models have been showing this for days.
20 inches of snow. This would be a lifetime event for me in southern Illinois. 
Hmmm. RAH upgraded to Warnings for Triad counties up to Roxboro. Watches left for now remainder of CWA.
Just thinking out loud, they might be considering Ice Storm Warnings instead for the next line or 2 of counties S and E, then Advisories S and E further where .25 accrual or lower is forecasted. Really just a guess though. Wasn’t expecting just part of the CWA to get the upgrade.
Just thinking out loud, they might be considering Ice Storm Warnings instead for the next line or 2 of counties S and E, then Advisories S and E further where .25 accrual or lower is forecasted. Really just a guess though. Wasn’t expecting just part of the CWA to get the upgrade.
rburrel2
Member
Biggest "upside" concern for the upstate is if we don't sleet.... you're going to have to the max super cooled water droplets(thanks to the -8 to -10C cold layer) landing on a 22-24 degree surface. That's as good as it gets for ice accural, even if the rates pick up, you aren't gonna lose a ton to run off.
I don't think acrual rates will be very good for that final band since we will have probably warmed to 28-30 and lost our cold air feed by that point, so latent heat release be a factor.
If we can escape the first initial batch of heavier precip with mostly sleet instead of freezing rain... then i'd guess we wind up with 1/4 inch of ice which isn't catastrophic.
If that first heavy batch is mostly freezing rain, we're getting 1/2 inch minimium ice accruals.
beanskip
Member
Lot of focus on precip, but also noting the 12z models are gradually stepping down temps in the I-85 CAD regions. It's just a degree or 2 a run -- or 25-50 miles of sub 32F penetration -- but that really starts to add up with multiple runs.
ICON is the latest 12z run to do this.
ICON is the latest 12z run to do this.
SWVAwxfan
Member
winter storm warning for the NRV.
Relax...I'm just talking about the NAM run...what are you talking about...that's just one model but is following theme of less precip in central eastern NC that the AI models are showing.
Slower does equal less in Georgia.
the snow footprint funny to me on this storm. it's significant not because a strip of 10 counties is getting two feet but because the geographic equivalent of 11 states is all getting one foot. don't think i've ever seen that. great work if you can get it. shame it's not for us but should be excellent snowpack and will shut up a lot of whiners
Yeah, it's another degrees or two colder than the 06z run. It also seems to be bucking the trend and bringing in the precip slightly quicker.
The high resolution WRF-based Cams are incredibly cold.
12z ICON - 1" of QPF for RDU, GSO, CLT with temperatures in the mid to upper teens from hr 36-48 alone. 
I think Alan's map is good for a worst case scenario for most of us. While this better than the doomsday forecasts we were seeing yesterday we are not out of the woods yet. Alan noted the trends showing lesser ice accrual and said these numbers could improve when he releases his next forecast map. Speaking of woods, I can worry a little less about some of the 50-100 foot hardwoods in the strip of woods behind my house coming down in my backyard.Allan just put a new update out
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Tsappfrog20
Member
He does say that he might chafe things after the afternoon running he needs too
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foothillscrewzone
Member
RGEM has been pretty consistent. All of this should be frozen in NC/Upstate SC
Mpirone12
Member
12z ICON - 1" of QPF for RDU, GSO, CLT with temperatures in the mid to upper teens from hr 36-48 alone.
Super James could you post by chance
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I don’t hate this model forecast, I feel like the icon and cmc have done a surprisingly good job with this one
You should like this @MSnowAtl this would give much of the area sleet. That’s how cold it is!
With temperatures that cold, this would increase sleet totals in most cases. Is that one inch of QPF for the entire storm or for the twelve hour period mentioned? I hope ICON is overdoing the QPF in that case.12z ICON - 1" of QPF for RDU, GSO, CLT with temperatures in the mid to upper teens from hr 36-48 alone.
Mahomeless
Member
At first glance, that looks real concerning for east central AL, where the guard has been completely dropped. However it looks like this is just due to the system slowing, allowing more CAD to filter in, soon to be eroded by WAA. Am I seeing this right?
Wow wow wow! Is it reliable though? I have never seen this product. If this happens I am satisfied. @bouncycorn
Over the moon for you Nicky B but we don’t need to see this right now, family
WolfpackHomer91
Member
WBTV “Futurecast” ….. nice little 4-6hr period of snow for I-40 and North. Then looks like mostly sleet Overnight. If we could get this thing 50 -100 miles more to the South I think 40 could stay primarily snow for a good while into the night Saturday. For Ex: Lynchburg on NwS is at 6-12” Up to 1/4” ICE that’s roughly 100 “Rail Miles” from Browns Summit and Northern GSO
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Mahomeless
Member
Snow report on mPING just northeast of Little Rock, AR....
This would be all-frozen for the major NC metros. It's on the wetter side of guidance for sure.
rburrel2
Member
Man, the icon continues to advertise an all-time historical storm for NE GA/Upstate/Central and eastern NC.
I'm not buying the super dry modeling on the southern fringe.
The euro says we have that gulf convection(and thus more precip further south in our area) and at this lead time, it's hard to beat the euro on precip forecasting. and it has support from the rgem/icon/gfs/fv3.
I'm not buying the super dry modeling on the southern fringe.
The euro says we have that gulf convection(and thus more precip further south in our area) and at this lead time, it's hard to beat the euro on precip forecasting. and it has support from the rgem/icon/gfs/fv3.
I don’t buy that.