Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[KyloG]

The Pacific looks different in the composite. But I guess we have to take what we get. Do not look at the LR 0z or 6z GFS OPs, btw.

I filtered out some big events that looked similar pac to what's coming up. What you think? Missing the big 50/50 but I think/hope that evolves.

 

[Rain Cold]

I filtered out some big events that looked similar pac to what's coming up. What you think? Missing the big 50/50 but I think/hope that evolves.

View attachment 61482View attachment 61483

Yeah that looks pretty good. I think a 50/50 will show up at some point, given that block hangs around.

 

[KyloG]

Yeah that looks pretty good. I think a 50/50 will show up at some point, given that block hangs around.

I am cherry picking winners too . I am sure patterns like this come up and don't produce more times that not.

But, EPS really giving me the Feb 87/04 vibe.

 

[KyloG]

Interesting seeing the evolution of the trop PV. It's pushed off pole to Siberia....but then starts to stretch. Does it split and send a piece towards NA/Europe.

 

[Nomanslandva]

How did Texas get 12” plus of snow and Columbia gets nothing? They are the same latitude? I guess it has to do with March being Columbia’s snowiest month, and I don’t get that because of the March sun angle?

There's and old saying something like nothing between Texas and the north pole but barbed wire fence. So basically, blame the mountains.

 

[KyloG]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

 

[Clem282340]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

View attachment 61489

How about klqk please

 

[KyloG]

How about klqk please

 

[smast16]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

View attachment 61489

You're posting pictures with pretty colors. Never apologize!

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

 

[Rain Cold]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

Your eyes are good.

 

[Stormdoc]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

Meh, with this pattern change I would not trust the long range GFS further than I could digitally throw it. All ensembles overnight keep the -NAO strong

 

[tennessee storm]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

yeah, it doesnt matter much anyways, it hasnt helped us out yet, and it wont till the pacific becomes much more favorable for us....

 

[Chazwin]

Meh, with this pattern change I would not trust the long range GFS further than I could digitally throw it. All ensembles overnight keep the -NAO strong

I personally don’t trust the long range GFS no matter what pattern we’re in

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Meh, with this pattern change I would not trust the long range GFS further than I could digitally throw it. All ensembles overnight keep the -NAO strong

I personally don’t trust the long range GFS no matter what pattern we’re in

Good advice guys...... Stick with the ensembles. They always lead the way on long range forecasting.

 

[SD]

Your eyes are good.

Eps snow depth mean after day 10 actually jumped for us. Still sucks at .2 but that's the highest we've had in a really really long time on the eps

 

[BHS1975]

Eps snow depth mean after day 10 actually jumped for us. Still sucks at .2 but that's the highest we've had in a really really long time on the eps

I mean any snow on the ground is better than the last 2 years.


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[SD]

I mean any snow on the ground is better than the last 2 years.


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Agreed as you can see above where ollie posted the members there are a couple of big dogs showing. Hopefully we can keep the positivity going over the next few days

 

[SD]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

View attachment 61489

Gotta like the number of members showing something and really hinting at 2 maybe 3 systems there.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Your eyes are good.

Only because 2020 is hindsight! (sorry, I couldn't resist)

 

[whatalife]

Eps snow depth mean after day 10 actually jumped for us. Still sucks at .2 but that's the highest we've had in a really really long time on the eps

I guess this is ok for you guys...

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[FallsLake]

Even without snow, the weather can be interesting. Here is the 12z NAM at ~ midnight tonight. The wedge is fighting hard. The warm coastal front gets right up to the Wake County boarder, before it gets pushed back some afterwards. At this timepoint there could be a 20 degree difference between extreme SE Wake and western Wake.

 

[SD]

Even without snow, the weather can be interesting. Here is the 12z NAM at ~ midnight tonight. The wedge is fighting hard. The warm coastal front gets right up to the Wake County boarder, before it gets pushed back some afterwards. At this timepoint there could be a 20 degree difference between extreme SE Wake and western Wake.
View attachment 61498

Lol that's close to splitting my yard again

 

[SD]

I guess this is ok for you guys...

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It is for me. We added more members showing snow. That's far more important to me than the totals

 

[whatalife]

It is for me. We added more members showing snow. That's far more important to me than the totals

Yep. Even added more members down here. Anyone’s guess at this pt.


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[NoSnowATL]

 

[Oconeexman]

Winning

 

[ontherocks]

Lots of thunder this morning.....guess I’m all in with the pattern change and folklore. ?

 

[Chazwin]

Even without snow, the weather can be interesting. Here is the 12z NAM at ~ midnight tonight. The wedge is fighting hard. The warm coastal front gets right up to the Wake County boarder, before it gets pushed back some afterwards. At this timepoint there could be a 20 degree difference between extreme SE Wake and western Wake.
View attachment 61498

I’ve definitely seen that happen a few times here in Union County since I moved here 10 years ago. In fact once last winter, I left my house in Wingate and it was 68 degrees and went to work in Indian Trail only 16 miles from my house and the temperature there was 45.

 

[GaWx]

Even without snow, the weather can be interesting. Here is the 12z NAM at ~ midnight tonight. The wedge is fighting hard. The warm coastal front gets right up to the Wake County boarder, before it gets pushed back some afterwards. At this timepoint there could be a 20 degree difference between extreme SE Wake and western Wake.
View attachment 61498

Absolutely! If it weren’t, I wouldn’t be posting on this or any other wx bb since that is such a rarity.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Like I said I’m not a fan of this one but don’t sleep on it

 

[Deleted member 1449]

The east based -NAO is enough to gum up the works and turn this system into something really interesting. Only 7-8 days, too.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice trend with that low near SE Canada, continue that and we may be in business, for a wave I didn’t expect to do much of anything

 

[Chazwin]

Nice trend with that low near SE Canada, continue that and we may be in business, for a wave I didn’t expect to do much of anything View attachment 61503

Yeah this is definitely workable into a set up that even marginal temps could get it done.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Interesting how the wedge recedes and then builds back later today


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[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is the most likely setup imo but it’s still definitely something To watch as there’s time

 

[ATLwxfan]

CMC is the most likely setup imo but it’s still definitely something To watch as there’s time View attachment 61504

Cold chasing moisture, mountains blocking. Rinse repeat. ATL just better with an overrunning set up.


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[Deleted member 1449]

CMC is the most likely setup imo but it’s still definitely something To watch as there’s time View attachment 61504

We'll have to see how things evolve. It could easily become a Miller-B winter storm for CAD areas if we can get high pressure in the right spot.

 

[NCSNOW]

39, NE wind and rain currently. RAW day. Just like Wednesday

We played golf Sat,Mon,Tues. Had plans on playing all week long but thats not gonna happen with 5 straight days of rain on tap. Ground is a sponge

 

[NCSNOW]

Greensboro finished up Dec -0.1 BN and T of Snow. Can we get D,J,F all to come in BN? Stay tuned. Personally in Nov I was convinced we where headed for a torchy,misearable met winter ,start to finish.