NCSNOW
Member
Looks like back door front in route is around ashland,wakefield over to charlottesville heading back south. Passed as a warmfront earlier today. Whew at the fog out tonight.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
I did another winter storm analog scan, adding in, as requested by @Myfrotho704_ the +PNA.
Graphic #1: All storms with a -WPO, +PNA, -NAO.
Graphic #2: Big dogs with a -WPO, +PNA, -NAO.
Some of the storms that produced big dogs were:
I didn't add January 2002, or February 2004 because they didn't match the requirements, but all had a similar look.
Graphic #1: All storms with a -WPO, +PNA, -NAO.
'1950-12-28 00z', '1956-01-23 00z', '1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1964-01-12 00z', '1964-01-13 00z', '1964-02-08 00z', '1966-01-23 00z', '1966-01-25 00z', '1966-01-26 00z', '1966-01-27 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1978-02-19 00z', '1978-02-20 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1983-04-18 00z', '1983-04-19 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-01-25 00z', '1987-01-26 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '2000-01-25 00z', '2001-01-08 00z', '2001-01-09 00z', '2006-02-11 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2010-02-13 00z', '2010-03-02 00z', '2010-03-03 00z'
'1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z'
I didn't add January 2002, or February 2004 because they didn't match the requirements, but all had a similar look.
These suck. Please add good ones
I later took a look of all the -NAO, +PNA, +WPO dates that didn't produce snow to compare to the ones that did. Basically the same look, but one had a s/w centered in the right place.
According to the Euro, we're looking to surpass -3 sigma -NAO heights. There have been only 12 times that has happened since 1950.
'1962-12-31 00z', '1963-04-07 00z', '1963-04-08 00z', '1976-12-27 00z', '2010-01-02 00z', '2010-01-03 00z', '2010-01-04 00z', '2010-11-26 00z', '2010-12-15 00z', '2018-03-01 00z', '2018-03-02 00z', '2018-03-03 00z'
'1962-12-31 00z', '1963-04-07 00z', '1963-04-08 00z', '1976-12-27 00z', '2010-01-02 00z', '2010-01-03 00z', '2010-01-04 00z', '2010-11-26 00z', '2010-12-15 00z', '2018-03-01 00z', '2018-03-02 00z', '2018-03-03 00z'
I still don’t expect much from that wave but seeing the trends in the Atlantic with the trough under going back west is something I like and could do something better after this
It’s kind of funny that models had this look about a week ago for this wave, or maybe the last one? I don’t remember.
Yeah the control showed a snowstorm a week or so ago from the same wave that’s a bit interesting
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Ice look all day, everyday.
Lol! This has got to be the most 180 flip on the Cansip I’ve ever seen!
A couple members got something.. better than the nun last run
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s amazing how infrequently we have seen a good fantasy storm this winter. Sure it’s a long way to go but at least give us a 
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Exactly while I’m internationally panicking. Sure we have good indices, but please connect that Atlantic trough to the SE please!It’s amazing how infrequently we have seen a good fantasy storm this winter. Sure it’s a long way to go but at least give us a
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ATLwxfan
Member
Last year we got our hearts broken by the MJO. This year I hope it’s not the indices.
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Ron Burgundy
Member
Thanks for posting. Always enjoy your analysis.
Yeah that’s really good stuff there, hopefully it can start getting under hour 240 
Geez models have struggled with the PNA area all year 
EPS biting a little on the first system 
I’m not really a fan of this first system but I guess you can’t ignore it 
fairly solid mean on the EPS 
Downeast special haha 
Nice 
Yeah, I have a feeling somebody is going to pull up 850s and get depressed, but really, I’m much happier with this run because the -NAO weakened, which leads to more blocking/connection to the 50/50 low. Here’s the probabilities by the way.
This look right after D10 (which the euro is interested in) looks solid on the EPS 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Significant winter storm day 10 on 6Z GFS for CAD areas.
Nomanslandva
Member
Note to self. If this one continues to look interesting, don't get sucked in too much until we get a good look at the warm nose on the NAM. Reminds me of the early Dec storm that was supposed to be mostly frozen and ended up being all ZR with token flakes on the backside. At least things are starting to look a little better week 2 2021. Happy New Year SouthernWx peeps and stay safe!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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How did Texas get 12” plus of snow and Columbia gets nothing? They are the same latitude? I guess it has to do with March being Columbia’s snowiest month, and I don’t get that because of the March sun angle?
I’ll take that. Runs right through KECG.
ajr
Member
6z GEFS jumped from a GL cutter to a costal/Miller B storm around the day 11 mark:
The Pacific looks different in the composite. But I guess we have to take what we get. Do not look at the LR 0z or 6z GFS OPs, btw.