• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Broken024 said:
Likely several outliers on march 2 skewing the day
Click to expand...
Ollie Williams said:
Probably skewed by some storms
Click to expand...
Yep daily records/averages like that can easily be skewed by outlier events or multiple hits on a single day.
What's interesting is if you look at the rdu data you are more likely to get a 4-6+ event in the 2nd half of Feb into early March than you are from 12/1-2/14
 
SnowNiner said:
It is surprising isn't it to see really good h5 and so little cold.
Click to expand...
Well tbh, it's not that really great of a pattern. It's a really great block, but we need a cold air source, that is, if we're talking widespread wintry weather. I think most of the excitement is because we finally have blocking and because we are not torching. But we will still need cold air injected into the pattern at some point.. It's no surprise we aren't seeing fantasy snowstorms. I mean, I think we will. Honestly. But it's going to take a while.
 
SD said:
Yep daily records/averages like that can easily be skewed by outlier events or multiple hits on a single day.
What's interesting is if you look at the rdu data you are more likely to get a 4-6+ event in the 2nd half of Feb into early March than you are from 12/1-2/14
Click to expand...
Why do you think it is that Raleigh is more likely to get a big snow event in late Feb and early March than earlier in the winter when it's usually a lot colder ?
 
Rain Cold said:
Well tbh, it's not that really great of a pattern. It's a really great block, but we need a cold air source, that is, if we're talking widespread wintry weather. I think most of the excitement is because we finally have blocking and because we are not torching. But we will still need cold air injected into the pattern at some point.. It's no surprise we aren't seeing fantasy snowstorms. I mean, I think we will. Honestly. But it's going to take a while.
Click to expand...

The likelihood of snow for most of us is low. That’s just life. But this pattern is gonna produce well for the mountains for sure. Also for the upper south I’d think. Maybe even some epic amounts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
The likelihood of snow for most of us is low. That’s just life. But this pattern is gonna produce well for the mountains for sure. Maybe even some epic amounts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah I expect this is going to be a banner year for the mountains and eventually for the lower Mid-Atlantic. The SE as a whole should do pretty well also, provided that block hangs around for a good while. Indications are, at this point, it will.
 
a48b21cbe0958e75eed0125902a4390c.jpg

This is just dumb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Why do you think it is that Raleigh is more likely to get a big snow event in late Feb and early March than earlier in the winter when it's usually a lot colder ?
Click to expand...

More of a thermal gradient as the lower latitudes start warming which leads to stronger lows, wavelengths start changing, probably a little higher atmospheric moisture content.
 
Broken024 said:
Haven't seen more than an inch here from 94-01, 12-20 in December. I hate December ?
Click to expand...
I think the recent December 2017 and 2018 snowstorms have led to a recency bias that makes some perceive December as a snowier month than it actually is. Not all of the board even cashed in on either of those two.
 
Rain Cold said:
Well tbh, it's not that really great of a pattern. It's a really great block, but we need a cold air source, that is, if we're talking widespread wintry weather. I think most of the excitement is because we finally have blocking and because we are not torching. But we will still need cold air injected into the pattern at some point.. It's no surprise we aren't seeing fantasy snowstorms. I mean, I think we will. Honestly. But it's going to take a while.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The ensemble snow mean is low for that exact reason, indicative that it's just not cold enough yet. Hopefully we find some late January.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Probably skewed by some storms
Click to expand...
It is. 1927, 1960, and 1980 all had 6+ inches at CLT. It’s funny because if you look at average number of days with snowfall then January is first, but there have been enough big dogs after 2/15 that there is a number of days in there that average more than January
 
SnowNiner said:
Agreed. The ensemble snow mean is low for that exact reason, indicative that it's just not cold enough yet. Hopefully we find some late January.
Click to expand...

If we are depending on the SSW, it wouldn’t be before then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Brick Tamland said:
Does anything else matter in winter if we don't get snow?
Click to expand...
Personally I want the cold no matter what happens in regards to snow simply because I enjoy the different seasons. I’ve been every bit as frustrated with our cool springtime as of late as I’ve been at 75-80 degrees in January and February. At least not torching during the winter delays the mosquitoes for a bit living where I do, I know I lot of peach and berry farmers that have struggled the last few years due to the very early blooming followed by the inevitable hard freeze
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top