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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

From last night's RAH discussion they think there's a good chance of folks seeing some snow. But their main concern is surface temps, which at the writing look to stay above freezing. They said it would have to come down really hard for any accumulations. Maybe we can get the RDPS to win one and we end up with colder temps.

Also RAH just put out a new HWO:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
609 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-261100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
609 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of dense fog are expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A storm system crossing the area Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning may produce a little light wintry precipitation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$
 
FallsLake said:
So the GISv16 still shows some hope for the NE Piedmont into the northern coastal plain of NC. And now the 6z RDPS is coming in colder:
View attachment 67735
The RDPS even has temps at RDU getting below freezing during the event.
Click to expand...
Well last night's Euro was a tick better also. I'm not giving up yet, I'll go down with the ship if I have to
 
metwannabe said:
Well last night's Euro was a tick better also. I'm not giving up yet, I'll go down with the ship if I have to
Click to expand...
Yeah me too. It's starting to look like we will see some snow, but surface temps are the wildcard. If we end up with moderate snow and 35 degrees, we wont see anything significant. But if we can get just a little colder at the surface, maybe a 1-3 event is not out of the question.
Here's the RDPS surface temps matching the image time above:
aaaa.JPG
**blues is at or below freezing
 
@Myfrotho704_ 6z 3k and long range HRRR were snooze fests for Tuesday morning and afternoon for tstorms. GSP mentions enough for some storms along and south of 85 tomorrow afternoon, has 20% thunder imby
 
We are to need a lot of help below 850 I could still see a change over along and north of 40 but boy that's a deep stout warm layer.
 
SD said:
I guess we should start a thread for this week maybe it'll change our luck
Click to expand...
Or we could just wait till the 12z models, there's not much Jan discussion anyway now since we're at the end of the month and the Feb thread is up and running, just my .02 haha
 
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