Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

V16 been listening to me, concord NC lollipop

 

[KyloG]

para trends

 

[stephend122080]

GFS coming into line with a southern VA jackpot.

Past 4 0z/12 runs on the GFS

View attachment 67521

DC snow hopes starting to dwindle

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[KyloG]

I can't tell if the UK went a hair north or just a hair quicker exiting. But looks south of the GFS...except GFS is noticeably quicker.

 

[sdm47]

V16 been listening to me, concord NC lollipop View attachment 67522

12z GFS parallel was probably the closest any other run has come to last night's 00z UKMET. The southern wave was just a tad faster, but otherwise very similar.

 

[tramadoc]

You're looking to be in the best spot along with @tramadoc on this one. I'd like to see continues shifts like we've been seeing the last 36 hours. Feeling like areas east of 95 and north of 264 are looking better.

Geez, I can only hope. If it pans out and I’m a winner, “It’s Bo Time for everyone”. My treat. One item only you animals.

 

[ILMRoss]

i swear man just when we were starting to harvest the fruit of our incremental trends this thing decides to become the tyreek hill of shortwaves smh

 

[Shaggy]

Geez, I can only hope. If it pans out and I’m a winner, “It’s Bo Time for everyone”. My treat. One item only you animals.

Hope you get a surprise and end up with 6+

 

[Jon]

If you could slow the southern upper low on the GFS down you could have potentially have a UK type solution. I am grasping for whatever I can hope for...

GFS v/s UK at 0z Thursday

View attachment 67516

I don’t think you’re grasping. GFS is out to lunch here. There’s no reason to believe right now that the GFS has it right with it’s vort evolution when the Euro/UKMET/KMA and almost the CMC are together. GFS basically only has the ICON right now.






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[KyloG]

Sneaking into that 2" mean

Dang that QPF max has to be close to you?

 

[Jon]

Now we need colder air!

It’s there, the issue is the surface low leading to a warm nose. A few more trends and instead of north of the entire state, the warm nose will be its usual location through wake


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[SWVAwxfan]

It’s there, the issue is the surface low leading to a warm nose. A few more trends and instead of north of the entire state, the warm nose will be its usual location through wake


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What are the 2m Temps? Showing a lot of qpf in my area.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@metwannabe special

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I bet the soundings are painfully close

 

[KyloG]

For all the changes with the low diving down in Canada the surface impacts really hasn't resulted in any southern movement. The northern members have gone down though.

 

[ILMRoss]

god i can't wait til the CAMs get a crack at this, idk how it will change things but i really doubt any of the globals are accurately dealing with an instant occlusion the second this thing touches the coast

 

[KyloG]

CMC same...northern edge shifting south but doesn't shift into NC much. Chase to Richmond I guess.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC really isn’t budging with that feature in Canada, Dang

 

[KyloG]

I count 5 members on the GEFS that get accumulating snow down to i40. There is several whiffs in there too.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

UKIE coming in much warmer than 00z