Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[ajr]

So comparing the 12z NAM to the 6z GFS, the NAM is a good bit SE at hour 84. Not sure how it would play out afterwards but at least it looks better (...or different).

 

[Brick Tamland]

I guess we're making progress with the small shifts south, but it still might not make much of a difference for NC folks. We need some bigger shifts.

 

[JJr]

I’m a little surprised to see the President’s Day’79 storm as an analog. That storm was very unusually cold for snowstorms in the Carolinas with KGSO, KRDU, and KCLT all having temperatures in the low to mid teens during the bulk of the storm... sounds like it would have been a much different set up.

I remember that storm very well also. Like you said low to mid teens, and during the day. The next day, I believe was Monday ,sunny mid to upper 40s meltfest

 

[stephend122080]

Early on, 12z icon has the N/S energy a little further SW and the wave coming into TX, not sure if this will make a difference, but let's see what happens

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[SWVAwxfan]

Everything is copacetic. Thanks for asking! Are you from around these parts? Happen to be familiar with the area?

I lived in Blythewood for 6 years. I'm originally from West Columbia. Now live in Christiansburg VA.

 

[Metwannabe]

Need more shifts

 

[stephend122080]

Sort of similar to 00z Euro but with a stronger low E of Hatteras, NE NC with perhaps some accumulating snow

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[Shaggy]

Need more shifts
View attachment 67513

You're looking to be in the best spot along with @tramadoc on this one. I'd like to see continues shifts like we've been seeing the last 36 hours. Feeling like areas east of 95 and north of 264 are looking better.

 

[stephend122080]

Sort of similar to 00z Euro but with a stronger low E of Hatteras, NE NC with perhaps some accumulating snow

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DC gets blanked on this run

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[Myfrotho704_]

 

[stephend122080]

Good to see GFS making improvements at 72 hours

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[packfan98]

Southern VA Special on the 12z GFS. Looks to get the northern tier counties of NC in on the good stuff if my map reading abilities are still up to par.

EDIT - pivotal has most of it showing up as rain in NC. The column was good for a larger area, but surface temps are in the mid 40's.

 

[KyloG]

If you could slow the southern upper low on the GFS down you could have potentially have a UK type solution. I am grasping for whatever I can hope for...

GFS v/s UK at 0z Thursday

 

[Broken024]

Basically misses dc completely. At least we have that

 

[packfan98]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not bad
Can we get more of this tho

 

[KyloG]

GFS coming into line with a southern VA jackpot.

Past 4 0z/12 runs on the GFS

 

[packfan98]

Now we need colder air!

 

[sdm47]

Now we need colder air!

This is the problem with the solution we have now. Unless that upper low can shift 100s of miles east such that the NVA is over New England, how are we going to get a surface high pressure to drive that cold air into the region? The only way I see is to thread the needle with a weak suppressed low that explodes once offshore, like what the UKMET did - and what a fine needle to thread that is.

 

[Shaggy]

Not bad View attachment 67519View attachment 67518
Can we get more of this tho View attachment 67517

I'd like to see that low go from the Charlotte area to more off cape lookout than the sounds. We need that SE trend and another 100 miles offshore.