Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[NickyBGuarantee]

I was laughed and ridiculed for suggesting snow pack over mid Atlantic would cause to cad and get winter weather with the following systems. Kick and bruised.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Now this is finally a better pattern where the southeast ridge can take hold

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

WPC generally the best realistic guidance

Days 4 and 5

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GOA ridge is the worst possible ridge you can get in the pacific, geez severe weather would be fun with this sort of pattern, but this pattern is honestly one of those that could shift to put us in the freezer or bake

 

[Myfrotho704_]

? @Lickwx

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might be a pretty interesting run although it’s warmer at H85 so far

 

[LickWx]

? @Lickwx View attachment 67560

Severe weather look? I want our friends in Georgia to freeze their balls off this spring personally. I have suffered one too many cold Marches past decade that they avoided. Love the WAR! Keeps me warm and the rest of them cold. Thats a warm humid look.

 

[WeatherNC]

UK is an absolute bomb, drops 36mb in 18hrs, ATL-CLT to just off HAT. Some indication from both it and the NAM SLP gets cranking off the Crystal Coast. Column just crashes between hours 90 and 96. While the NAM/GFS both have energy displaced from the base in Central Appalachia, UK/ECMWF keep it semi-consolidated at the base of the trough access.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Little food for thought!




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[Myfrotho704_]

Severe weather look? I want our friends in Georgia to freeze their balls off this spring personally. I have suffered one too many cold Marches past decade that they avoided. Love the WAR! Keeps me warm and the rest of them cold. Thats a warm humid look.

Yeah maybe, and that’s a look where we can get the SERs that hug the Eastern SE (those can be very warm)

 

[LickWx]

Yeah maybe, and that’s a look where we can get the SERs that hug the Eastern SE (those can be very warm)

Very warm and humid especially right along the coast . That’s a pattern where places like Savannah , Charleston , wilmington , and new Bern can push to 80 with moderate humidity and warm lows . Essentially early summer weather . Beach trip in February if that happens .

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very warm and humid especially right along the coast . That’s a pattern where places like Savannah , Charleston , wilmington , and new Bern can push to 80 with moderate humidity and warm lows . Essentially early summer weather . Beach trip in February if that happens .

Hopefully it happens we’re due for a big SER

 

[LickWx]

Hopefully it happens we’re due for a big SER

Well one could say we are due a massive arctic outbreak as well lol. I’m just rooting for the SER option .

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well one could say we are due a massive arctic outbreak as well lol. I’m just rooting for the SER option .

I think given we are in a nina February, our odds of a bake fest are better, but not 100

 

[snowlover91]

Euro wasn’t a good run overall, for anyone really.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run was meh asf

 

[olhausen]

So does this storm have any chance of bringing accumulating snow to northern middle Tennessee? It seems to have started trending in the direction of at least seeing some flurries possibly.

 

[NCSNOW]

UK is an absolute bomb, drops 36mb in 18hrs, ATL-CLT to just off HAT. Some indication from both it and the NAM SLP gets cranking off the Crystal Coast. Column just crashes between hours 90 and 96. While the NAM/GFS both have energy displaced from the base in Central Appalachia, UK/ECMWF keep it semi-consolidated at the base of the trough access.

Good analysis. I need AtL-clt- south of Morhead. Prefearably Wilm/Myb. Think that would bennefit you guys even more with that rapid deepening and no WAA worries. Put yall in sweet spot longer before pulling out.

 

[sdm47]

I hope this upper low does keep shifting southeast just to prove it won't matter.

As I alluded to yesterday, even though that upper low is trending south hundreds of miles, there has been no change in the amount of low level cold air available at the start of this event. Without the surface high nosing in -- which would require the upper low to shift east hundreds of miles -- it is going to be an extremely narrow tightrope to make this work other than maybe a backside band somewhere in northeastern NC.

 

[NCSNOW]

Need the bombagenisis right as it exits coast, not a second latter. Then you need it in a certain spot,depending on your location. Long shot, but its all we got and have to root for.