Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Ollie Williams]

Anybody have the 18z eps? I can’t remember how far out they go on the 6z/18z.

A bit worse than 12z. Much worse than the GFS/GEFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Completely different

 

[Ollie Williams]

Completely different View attachment 66953View attachment 66954View attachment 66955View attachment 66956

I unfortunately, will go with the Euro for now since it does better with the major synoptic things.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I unfortunately, will go with the Euro for now since it does better with the major synoptic things.

Yeah GFS/GEFS May be to progressive with that N/S energy, the euro honestly isn’t to horrible but we need that energy over the GLs rather than that far north

 

[Ollie Williams]

From RAH:

Models then project another shot of Arctic air ahead of yet another
southern stream wave racing from the southern US to the OH Valley by
Thursday. This would result in another period of CAD and well below
normal temperatures, with some small potential for wintry weather
based on a little better phasing and placement of high pressure over
eastern Canada. In the case of both of next weeks systems, and
particularly the late week system, the shortwaves and jet energy of
interest are still out over the north Pacific, so confidence is
below average.

 

[LickWx]

Completely different View attachment 66953View attachment 66954View attachment 66955View attachment 66956

Models have been a rollercoaster ... unlike our weather !

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Yeah, but you never want to be in the bullseye this far out

Beats being south of the bullseye. Cougb Columbia SC cough.

 

[KyloG]

Haven't really looked too much at the details the past couple of days but you can see the glaring difference between the GFS/Euro over the pole.

 

[KyloG]

UK looks pretty good....not quite as good as the GFS but solid.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 66961

Temps gonna get in the 60s days before the event ???

 

[iGRXY]

Through 129 on the Icon the Vort looks to be further south through northern Texas. Colder push as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon probably about have a winter storm, pretty classic Miller B/CAD look right there

 

[iGRXY]

Much more CAD compared to 12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much more CAD compared to 12z

Lights out ICON run incoming

 

[iGRXY]

The difference at 18z from the 12z ICON to the 0Z is mhmmm close to 20 degrees with moisture coming in and temps at freezing or in the mid 30’s.

 

[Ollie Williams]

This looks good!

 

[KyloG]

Yikes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow, icon verbatim is a ice event around 85 with snow north, still loading

 

[iGRXY]

You account for the warm bias and that’s likely a crippling ice storm from the upstate north. Temps got down to freezing and we’re hovering around 36 right before the event so not good.