Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 18z ICON is still the best looking model setup-wise thru day 5. That PV lobe over Manitoba is strung out and our wave over New Mexico is flat, broad, & pretty far south.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Lol there’s still a chance we could turn this back into a miller B setup with ice
Pennsylvania storm ? book it ?
Normally I would agree, but the medium range changes has been insane this winter, that little snow event/deform band event in NC early January was appearing in the MA on models 3-7 days out, and we’re barely in that window of time
MA is definitely favored tho
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol if the 18z ICON ran out past 120 hrs, this run would have been the best one yet, setup-wise it was an improvement over the 12z.
The key to getting a storm in NC is to have additional confluence & suppression around day 4-5 w/ that northern stream wave over Quebec & Ontario to squash the SE US ridge and encourage our main s/w over the desert SW to take a track further south. We still have a little while to figure this one out.
The key to getting a storm in NC is to have additional confluence & suppression around day 4-5 w/ that northern stream wave over Quebec & Ontario to squash the SE US ridge and encourage our main s/w over the desert SW to take a track further south. We still have a little while to figure this one out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We need to get back to seeing this kind of confluence over the Lakes on the GFS/GEFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z GFS coming in looking more like the ICON by day 5 w/ flatter, broader wave over the Desert SW, and more confluence over the Lakes. Still needs work but it's a decent improvement over the 12z run
This is better for sure then that Garbo 12z run 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Now our wave is over the TX panhandle.
Woof
Woof
Watch it head toward the Lakes in the next few frames.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nope, not w/ the deep layer NW flow over the NE US, it's gonna eventually turn back to the SE we just hope that happens when the wave starts out over the southern plains not Missouri or Iowa
Certainly a nice look at 850mb. More important in showing how the precip orientation will setup IMO.
18z (Worlds better!)
12z
18z (Worlds better!)
12z
VA north sitting pretty. Hope everyone else likes rain.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One more shift like that w/ the wave & additional confluence in the NE US, and we got a big dog storm in NC.
That’s a mess 
Backside is actually potent as it pulls through NC. Hmm
Paste bomb, especially north of I-40!
Honestly looks like March 1927, but further north.
Honestly looks like March 1927, but further north.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’ll take that look with a 1042 to my north any day. Give me that look the night before game day and I’m very happy.
Oh no that’s not ideal with ZR ? let’s shift it south don’t want lights out haha 
iGRXY
Member
I like that look for the upstate as well. Think the LP would likely track further south with that much Hp over top.