Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Webberweather53]

Just gonna bump this from this morning as a reminder haha.

Get that s/w to take the track along the dotted blue line & NC is gonna get plastered w/ a big snowstorm.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run Gives off a little bit of dec 2018 vibes lol, even tho Synoptics are different

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Paste bomb, especially north of I-40!
Honestly looks like March 1927, but further north.
View attachment 66922

That shows me getting nearly 20 inches. Ouch!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’re gonna see massive shifts both ways the next few days, just not one consistent one. just looking at it, it simply already looks difficult for models to handle, lol, I mean it’s a wave barreling through a ridge and some random N/S energy nearby/confluence

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Expect a lot of shifts but verbatim the risk area is now into the Low category for warning snow/ice for the mtns (esp northern mtns) into Virginia to start preparing and tracking. Advisory to rain east of NC mtns because I always shift the model output 3 or so counties north to be realistic even the day of works out >90% of the time.

 

[Webberweather53]

Expect a lot of shifts but verbatim the risk area is now into the Low category for warning snow/ice for the mtns (esp northern mtns) into Virginia to start preparing and tracking. Advisory to rain east of NC mtns because I always shift the model output 3 or so counties north to be realistic even the day of works out >90% of the time.

It's way too early even for that, we could still end up getting mild(er) rain and t'storms for areas in the southern coastal plain or just a straight up historic snowstorm lol. Anything in between likely involves ice for many. It's all on the table atm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It's way too early even for that, we could still end up getting mild(er) rain and t'storms for areas in the southern coastal plain or just a straight up historic snowstorm lol. Anything in between likely involves ice for many. It's all on the table atm

Lol if our wave gets held back any and Most of the confluence/N/S gets a move on before our held back system arrives = wedges

 

[Metwannabe]

VA north sitting pretty. Hope everyone else likes rain.View attachment 66916

C'mon man if that's all your going to add use the whamby, please. Thanks

 

[Webberweather53]

That's better.

Not great, but better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS looks better at H5 vs 12z

 

[Stormdoc]

We’re gonna see massive shifts both ways the next few days, just not one consistent one. just looking at it, it simply already looks difficult for models to handle, lol, I mean it’s a wave barreling through a ridge and some random N/S energy nearby/confluence

Just looking at the H5 there is just a ton of moving parts here. I noted 18Z has a stronger 50/50 as well, not surprisingly, plus there are a lot of S/Ws up in northern Canada that I am sure can affect the SE confluence, not to mention the strength of the NAO. Fun times

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And as expected the surface/H85 response is better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Haha you can already see the lee side dry slot

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Chandler]

Much better snow mean on the GEFS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You can already see who does well climo wise with miller As with the snow mean, the system goes thru that sort of transition as it moves away

 

[Webberweather53]

As uncertain as this setup is, the potential ceiling here is extremely high, especially in the coastal plain and eastern piedmont w/ the powerful coastal cyclone that cranks up late in this system's evolution. I've said this before a few days ago, but if we played all our cards right, a Mar 1927-lite event (i.e. slightly lesser version of Mar 1927) is certainly a very real possibility.

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

That shows me getting nearly 20 inches. Ouch!!

Yeah, but you never want to be in the bullseye this far out

 

[packfan98]

Anybody have the 18z eps? I can’t remember how far out they go on the 6z/18z.