Cary_Snow95
Member
If this trend continues into 12z tomorrow we can go ahead and write it off
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Big Aleutian Ridge = SE ridge gonna woof >>> blowtorch city
LickWx
Member
Yeah but we have seen that a lot , though it seems it may be slowly climbing it’s way out of fantasy range this time for real.
LickWx
Member
You are in Maryland , certainly looks good for you lol. Your climo is a solid 6-7 degrees colder than much of the forum in winter on average with something like 16-18 inches of snow on average in winter I’d wager ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd say it's for real this time, Maritime Continent forcing in late winter doesn't have the same meaning as it does early on
Lol, winter in CA! Around a 300 inch max.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z EPS looks better than the operational euro, op GFS, & GEFS thru day 5 w/ our PV lobe over central Canada
Time to take a trip to CA lol
Sandbar
Member
We did cold weather training in mammoth lake california back around 2010 I believe and got close to 4 feet in a little over 24 hours. Craziest thing I ever saw. Afghanistan had some crazy storms too up in the high elevations
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Euro Ens looks pretty wintry in the CAD regions based on the maps I can see
Dewpoint Dan
Member
That's a crazy sharp snow gradient ! Goes from nothing to 100+ inches in like 30 miles.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
First & foremost, we need to shift the main wave further south to have a real chance to get clocked in NC, a track along the I-64 corridor is great if you're in DC-BAL-PHL, spells cold rain or icy cold rain for GSO-RDU-CLT
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeo, it's actually got some similarities to Presidents Day 1979 setup except it's much warmer overall.
We had a near 1050mb high over the Great Lakes leading up to that storm which helped deliver enough low-level cold to produce big snows in NC despite the less than ideal z500 vort track. We're almost definitely gonna see nothing like that here unfortunately.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We do have one thing going for us, the strong -WPO on the EPS actually shifts the coldest air in the means towards our side of the pond/N America in early February
I know Anthony (HM) knows his stuff but I wish it meant more to me than just this.......
Долоо хоногийн эхэн үеийн системийн талаар сонирхолтой зүйлийг дурьдах нь: NE PAC-ээс SE Ridge руу өндөр тропопаузын үед гарч болзошгүй өндөр температур (мөн циклон түүнтэй хамт зугаалах болно). Бүх загварт ийм загвар байдаг, гэхдээ би ая тухтай байлгах үүднээс 6z GFS ашиглаж байна.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a pretty insane -WPO on the EPS, esp considering this is a day 11 ensemble mean.
Normally I would agree with you in a heartbeat, but we’ve seen too many big flip flops in the models, especially the op runs, inside 5-6 days out the last few weeks.
iGRXY
Member
Gotta know this was expected. Don’t know of too many wall to wall model runs that keep a storm all the way through. They always lose them at some point to bring them back around the day 3-4 range. Let’s see if it happens here
I agree, we just need patience. Most of us have seen this show before.
From RAH:
Models then project another shot of Arctic air ahead of yet another
southern stream wave racing from the southern US to the OH Valley by
Thursday. This would result in another period of CAD and well below
normal temperatures, with some small potential for wintry weather
based on a little better phasing and placement of high pressure over
eastern Canada. In the case of both of next weeks systems, and
particularly the late week system, the shortwaves and jet energy of
interest are still out over the north Pacific, so confidence is
below average.